I also agree that that projection is certainly overdone. We cannot realistically expect Q4 rev to double yoy. The purpose of that post is to show what a dramatic effect a 100% yoy increase of the Package Tour rev would have on a company like UTA who derives about 70% of its rev from that segment which has the highest growth among all travel segments. Comparatively, CTRP grew its Q4 rev by only 39% yoy despite the 108% increase of its PT rev since PT makes up only 12% of CTRP's total rev. That's the main difference b/w these two companies.
You attributed CTRP's rev growth in the PT sector mainly to acquisitions. Sure, Wing On Travel and ezTravel contributed about 2/3 of the yoy growth for CTRP's packaged-tour revenues. But UTA also made last year 5 acquisitions, all in that sector. Last Q it was able to grow total rev by 55%, almost half of it came from the 5 acquisitions:
Revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2010 were $46,290,131, compared to $29,784,918 for the same period in 2009, an increase of $16,505,213, or approximately 55%. The contributions from the five newly acquired subsidiaries were $11,551,294, or 24.95% of our total revenues for these three months. Excluding this effect, revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2010 were $34,738,837, compared to $29,784,918 for the same period 2009, an increase of $4,953,919, or approximately 16.63 %.
We have expended considerable efforts to expand our businesses, especially the packaged tour business. This resulted in the acquisition of five new packaged tour subsidiaries this year. For that reason, along with the strong demand for travel demand as a result of the growth of the Chinese economy, and the continuing effect of the Chinese government’s stimulus package, our revenue for the quarter ended September 30, 2010 increased significantly from the same period the year before.
So I do expect much that yoy growth to continue into Q4 as the acquistions were not there in 2009. Considering rev grew 55% yoy in Q3 and allowing for some weakening due to seasonality (as reported by CTRP), I am expecting about 50% yoy growth in Q4. This means:
Q4'10 rev = 51.3MM (=50% yoy increase)
EPS = 0.48 (E)
Full Year 2010:
$160MM revenue (=63.9% yoy increase)
EPS = 1.35 (E) based on fd= 19.5MM shares
PS: just curious how you get the same eps for Q4 as me on a much lower rev estimate of 35.8MM which implies a yoy growth of only 5%.
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