Baseball Chat

[Teamlasvegas]

1* on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +110

Reasons the Phillies win:

1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Any team (CINCINNATI) - in a playoff game, when trailing in a playoff series. This is a 56-23 ML System hitting 70.9% over the last 5 seasons. So far, the teams that have won Game 1 have went on to win Game 2 as well with the Yankees and Rangers both 2-0. The Reds do not have what it takes to turn this series around, they are just happy to be in the postseason for the first time since 1995.

Philadelphia starter Roy Oswalt has allowed 2 runs total in his last 4 starts. The Phillies are 13-3 their last 16 Playoff home games and they are 50-19 their last 69 home games. The Phillies are 40-15 vs. a team with a winning record and they are 20-6 their 26 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati starter Bronson Arroyo has allowed 6 runs total in his last 4 starts. The Reds are 18-40 their last 58 road games vs. a team with a winning record are 20-44 their last 64 games as road dogs +151 to +200. The Reds are 15-36 their last 51 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of over 60%. The only good news for the Reds is that Arroyo has allowed 6 runs total in his last 4 starts. PLAY ON PHILADELPHIA -(Oswalt vs. Arroyo)

Take: over

Reason: Philadelphia is a terrific offensive park, despite what we saw in Game 1. And these are the top two offensive teams in baseball in run production. Bronson Arroyo goes for the Reds and the team is 4-1 over the total his last 5 starts. Roy Oswalt had his worst games against the Reds this season, with an 0-2 record and a 6.75 ERA. Look for an offensive show, Play the Reds/Phillies Over the total in Game 2.