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Re: PlanMaestro post# 295

Wednesday, 10/06/2010 11:06:13 PM

Wednesday, October 06, 2010 11:06:13 PM

Post# of 323
I'll just put another thought out there for feedback.

We should see the POR by November 23, 2010 and since the Par claim will not likely have been arbitrated by that time then we should expect that the full claim of $3.5 million will be included, even if it turns out to be less or even a zero a few months later. It has always been included in full on the MORs so there is no reason to suspect it will be otherwise on the POR. Since the full amount of the claim will be listed on the POR it will not paint the rosiest scenario for equity. In fact, it will likely present the worst-case scenario. But the beauty of the doomsday POR is that it basically establishes and reveals the downside risk.

I am assuming that those who know this all too well are not willing to ride that roller coaster for the next 2 months only to have to wait another 3 to 4 additional months to get the actual distribution. So the trade looks like it is shaping up to be one where you exit ahead of the POR and reenter after the dust settles. That is of course, unless the risk adjusted rate of expected return gets so low in the interim due to selling pressure that the bull case can once again be made.

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