JW, Fleck is right on
gold wont take off unless/until a few things happen:
(I know, I am preaching to a fellow believer)
- panic sets in
- bonds fail as a haven
- the dollar resumes its dive
I believe we have moved from complacency to deep concern
Fleck makes a great point about the public investment community simply not grasping the gravity of the economic situation
they still regard the stock market as the "aberration" that incorrectly reflects an "improving economy"
but they are illiterates, clinging to hope more than clear study
the stock market has always been the best forecaster of the economy, even more effectively than the Leading Econ Indicators, of which the S&P is but one of many contributors
boy oh boy, are they gonna be shocked at the rapid decay
RRussell said they will not be able to recognize the economy in 12 months
that is a great summary byline
today, I had a reply email from a very bright college roommate
he lives in Vermont, an old Grateful DeadHead
he works as a Burlington City small business town consultant
he is real wise to the ways of the world of business
but he has bought all the garbage put out by liberal & financial press nonsense
he has said to me in a long July conversation of 90 minutes...
- the stock market always comes back
- longterm buy & hold has always been very profitable
- the govt wont allow it to get out of control
- lower interest rates will have a big effect eventually
- our banking system is strong
- our brand of capitalism has a long proven record
- the US dollar is the strongest currency in the world
- there is no gold conspiracy by the Federal Reserve
last week I warned him that we are fast approaching a very very dangerous situation with our banking and financial interconnected system
I cited the deteriorating ill health of JPMorgan
he used to live and work in NYCity, and dismisses all such concern
today he replied with a simple message that the USGovt will not allow JPMorgan to fail, since it is too big
he is not aware of what derivatives are, or their complex role
he is not aware of the collective losses from their mass of failed loans, including Argentina
of course, I calmly cited a dozen points
highlighted by the LTCM parallel, only 15x larger
I cited the potential loss liabilities of JPM at perhaps $1 trillion
he is aware of LTCM, but not the details on its leverage
JW, it is a waste of time
I selected by good friend to continue warning because I love him and his wife, solid friends for 30 years
he has toiled at low pay for all these years
saved and saved in a 401k, watched it rise to $350k
now it is less than half that
in late July he boasted that I was wrong, the S&P rallied 14% from the July lows
but it was only slightly higher than when I first warned him in early July
I tried, but I continue to fail
they dont get it
in early August, I asked if he wanted more warnings
I dont just send a trite warning with no backing
I send a clip from RRussell, or a detail like how last week had a +200 Dow day, but the week lost 2%
he said to go ahead, knock myself out, he would benefit from my experience, BUT THAT I HAVE BEEN WRONG BEFORE, LIKE IN 2000
I dont warn anyone else, nobody, not one other friend
about 6-8 other friends have heard enough, they want no more
I expect some of them to phone me before Christmas, panicky
I should tell them to fook off, but I wont ever do that
I am too nice a guy, care too much, what a mensch I am?
those who lost big in 2000 are discredited in their eyes
I continue, but now with less enthusiasm or frequency
there is still passion in my dire pleadings
I describe the "peeling of the onion" from one level of risk-takers to the next, with conservatives being the last losers
no diff
a couple mocked me in the summer
I am tired of all that, no more, just one key friend
he is one of us four musketeers, one of whom has fallen victim to harsh alcoholism, losing track with us at our wishes
the other is a friend recently laid off in Ohio, tearing into his savings now, eager to buy gold shares but more intent on finding employment now
hey, RRussell expects Trez yields to bottom at 3% flat
golly gee, do you think gold will fook around for a couple more months while bond yields scrape down to 3% ???
I think it is possible
I just hope golds dont wither
the 200dayMA is providing support now for HUI
I dont mind more stalling, as long as I can accumulate further
I sold most of my mint-state silver coins and plan to put the money into more Novagold, or possibly Seabridge
maybe something else, but I doubt it
I get really loyal
Seabridge just announced pursuit of several Nevada properties for exploration purposes
Novagold had great exploration news last week on their big Nome Alaska property
I ramble, watching the StLouis Cardinals go down
they might pull it out
a brilliant suicide squeeze bunt by SFran Giants, niiiiiiccce
I want Barry Bonds to be denied further limelight from which to feed his oversized ego
he is NOT a team player, caring only about himself
he is the penultimate jagoff
thanks for the Fleck clip, and for visiting
/ jim
p.s. I expect a little more continuation of this stock rally
but it is to be caught deep in the teeth of the downtrend channel
AI
