Friday, August 06, 2010 2:31:20 PM
Well first off, there is a gigantic difference between COST ("price") and VALUE (as in "worth").
Based on the simple math involved, YES, the share PRICE may go to $10/share simply because of the R/S ratio. But I really doubt that it will ever be WORTH anywhere near that much, given the long track record of massive dilution that has pushed it to this R/S cliff.
It should be obvious that the COST is set by the market factors of Supply vs. Demand. Whereas VALUE is completely in the mind of the beholder. You may claim your (hypothetical) position is "worth" $1000, and that may be true for YOU and completely untrue for most everyone else.
You may think the shares are "worth" more than the current Bid, in which case you may choose NOT to sell. That is the risk associated in seeing this situation only in terms or worth as opposed to cost.
There is always a time delay in the brokerage account from the moment of the R/S event (Aug20) until the shares are converted and available. It is usually around 3 days but can be longer. The pre-split shares have to be "tendered" to the Transfer Agent, who then replaces them with post-split shares. It does take some time to deal with the paperwork involved.
So what if the market sets the price at $10 if you can't sell your shares?
And what do you think might happen during the 3 days your shares are encumbered?
And more importantly, who do you think might be able to sell their shares during that period? I'll give you a hint: his name starts with the letter "D".
But buying a few shares (say 100) in order to participate in the share round-up to the minimum of 100 might be a reasonable play. It is a gamble and not necessarily a sure thing. If $10 turns into $40 (or whatever) then you win. But suppose the Transfer Agent refuses to convert your shares. What do you do then? File a lawsuit for $5? Complain to the "toothless hag" of the SEC?
Look, the ONLY reason I'm here posting is because I already lost a ton of money on this Dilution Pig when I exited months ago. I would like to recoup part of my lost money and that is why I am considering this R/S deal. In reality I hate this stock and I strongly believe Davenport is just another crooked CEO out to fleece his shareholders.
All just my opinion...
VV
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