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Tuesday, July 20, 2010 8:30:10 AM
ZH: New Shorting Targets: Equity Update
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/20/2010 07:03 -0500From Nic Lenoir At ICAP
Good morning,
Just a quick technical update on the S&P future. We had recommended shorting around 1,087 (a touch early) but the market has shaped a very clean bearish impulse from 1,099. Currently we see a target at 1,045 for this move, after which we could see a rebound to 1,070/1,079 before further downward pressure.
Our big picture view remains very bearish, but the wave pattern from 1,003 to 1,099 is unclear to me. One could argue we had a bullish impulse from the lows but honestly the wave count is very shaky as the volumeless melt-ups show no participation and act a lot more than a Fixed Income or a FX carry trade than a proper bullish risk appetite impulse. In that sense I picture the move from 1,003 to 1,099 more as a corrective rally, and we would now be in bearish wave 3 of III. If that is the case after seeing 1,045 or slightly lower (1,041.50 is the 61.8% retracement of the bounce up) we could consolidate back up to 1,070 and possibly 1,079 (1,080 should not be bypassed) before accelerating lower.
I will update later on USDCAD and USDCLP FX crosses as I believe a break higher of those pairs could be the trigger to deflationary move in financial assets which would go along with our bearish equities view and our call for a bearish correction in Gold in the near term.
Good luck trading,
Nic
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/equity-update-2
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/20/2010 07:03 -0500From Nic Lenoir At ICAP
Good morning,
Just a quick technical update on the S&P future. We had recommended shorting around 1,087 (a touch early) but the market has shaped a very clean bearish impulse from 1,099. Currently we see a target at 1,045 for this move, after which we could see a rebound to 1,070/1,079 before further downward pressure.
Our big picture view remains very bearish, but the wave pattern from 1,003 to 1,099 is unclear to me. One could argue we had a bullish impulse from the lows but honestly the wave count is very shaky as the volumeless melt-ups show no participation and act a lot more than a Fixed Income or a FX carry trade than a proper bullish risk appetite impulse. In that sense I picture the move from 1,003 to 1,099 more as a corrective rally, and we would now be in bearish wave 3 of III. If that is the case after seeing 1,045 or slightly lower (1,041.50 is the 61.8% retracement of the bounce up) we could consolidate back up to 1,070 and possibly 1,079 (1,080 should not be bypassed) before accelerating lower.
I will update later on USDCAD and USDCLP FX crosses as I believe a break higher of those pairs could be the trigger to deflationary move in financial assets which would go along with our bearish equities view and our call for a bearish correction in Gold in the near term.
Good luck trading,
Nic
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/equity-update-2
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