InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[laranger]

Nokia's seemingly desperate actions are giving off a distinct POLITICAL odor, as we all focus on the legal questions.

But as Chief Snake, it's Jorma's solemn responsibility to grapple with the potential consequences of an adverse arbitration decision.

After all, the outcome could determine whether Nokia continues as one of Wall Street's darlings, and whether its stock option/compensation plans continue to go up in smoke.

So please consider the following, which may weigh just as heavily as the legal angles:

1. It's market share is in reverse/stagnant, instead of heading for NOK's stated target of 40%.

2. Even SAM outdid NOK in one of the latest sales reports.

3. Many of its executive stock options are under water.

4. The recent resignations of top execs didn't help NOK's image as the best and biggest in the business.

5. Although NOK demanded arbitration, IDCC has little to lose monetarily. On the other hand, NOK's potential liability could be several hundred million, causing a considerable dent in the cash register, as well as its Big Dog reputation.

At the moment, NOK's lawyers appear to be laying the groundwork for an appeal, or for negotiating leverage, or both.

But the nagging, non-legal-question has been asked many times before:

Can Jorma really afford to let a a three-man arbitration panel decide his fate, and that of his company, which employs 51,000 people around the world?

I think not. I would not.