Northam,
I’m sticking with my prediction that SPY (and obviously $SPX) continues down, to tag SMA(320), which is now at 1017.58 for $SPX, and slowly trending up.
I did a computer study of all the major sectors and indexes (usually represented as ETFs, such as SPY for $SPX, XLU for Utilities, XLF for Financials, etc.) a couple of days ago in order to find the most prominent Support/Resistance (S/R) level of each. Many of the sectors have fallen below their respective levels. That level for $SPX turned out to be 1090, so that would be resistance now. I did the search by first picking a price window (+/-50 cents, +/-100 cents, +/-150 cents; whatever, depending on the current value of the ETF being analyzed) then counting the number of price reversals over the last 10 months on a daily interval. By a large margin, there were two prominent S/R levels for $SPX, one at 1075 and the other at 1105, for an average of 1090. Virtually all of those reversals in $SPX happened between the middle of last October and the end of last February. In three of the last four days, including today (so far), price has tested that level but closed below. EMA(320) is now at 1087.18, and trending slightly down as of four days ago.
So far for today, $SPX has been either a doji or a spinning top. Daily CCI(20,1) has been trending down and is close to testing -50 for the first time since the most recent price peak on 5/12/2010. CCI tested its Zero line on 05/03/2010. Drawing a straight line between those two dates intersects today’s CCI at about -96.
