Short Term Trading Member Forum

[SilentOne]

hey doc,

Great summary. I have the same phasing.

As for the possibility that Feb. 5th was a 20 week low, I cannot find a way to reach that conclusion. Yes the bounce out of the early Feb. low (5 week low) was greater than expected, but a bounce was pretty much due nonetheless. Note how it came a little late at 25 days relative to recent 5 week periods which were running 22/23 days on average (with Dec. 31 as the last 5 and 10 week cycle lows). I think the decline in the days prior was overdone, so that gave fuel for the snap back.

I should remind ourselves that working out cycle lows around Christmas/New Years can be deceiving because trading is quite volatile.

My view is that the markets are showing weakness here in the way they trade, and the upside is limited at these levels. I think we have another 2.5 week cycle left to complete before a 20 week low arrives.

I'll sit and wait for a long setup in March. I have modest shorts on the SPY and some oil entered late last week.

cheers,

john

P.S. Den, I hope that provides a clear view of where my Hurst cycles stand.