Danger List
Posted by: greedy__malone Date: Saturday, December 26, 2009 4:59:27 PM
In reply to: None Post # of 1113
Danger List
* Ulterior Motives
* Tips at Work
* Specific Prices
* Message Boards
* Professional Analysts That Are Not Really That Professional
Tips at Work
No matter how excited your co-worker is about a stock, and no matter how amazing it may sound, when you are hearing a penny stock tip you should instantly become wary.
You may be the ten thousandth person that same information has passed through, and I can almost guarantee that you are not the first, and you are not the second, and you are not the one hundredth. (And that even applies if this tip is from his 'cousin's friend.' It's from everybody's cousin's friend!)
The more urgency you feel to rush out and buy the stock, the more likely it is that others before you have done the same thing. The more incredible the story that the company boasts, the more likely it is false.
Be aware that there are devious forces at work who make a very good living starting penny stock rumors. They plant the idea in the heads of a few of their friends or associates, and the concept spreads.
Even after it has migrated away from the source by passing through two dozen different people in each direction, those that continue to spread the rumor always seem to think that this 'special knowledge' comes from their friend's sister. Or the brother of a guy at the plant who knows a friend of mine. It doesn't.
While your friends probably have very good intentions, and are honest people, they have fallen victim to a trap that is beyond their control. You can then either add yourself to the casualty list, or protect yourself from the fallout.
Ask Your Friend Any of These Questions.
1. What are the company's revenues?
2. What is their debt load?
3. How many outstanding shares are there?
4. What is the name of the CEO?
5. Who are their competitors?
If your friend can not answer these, you should probably wonder how much he really knows.
(By the way, he or she will probably answer #5. It will go something like this: "They have no competitors! The technology is patented, and it is so revolutionary that they are the only ones who have North American distribution rights...")
This is not to say that you will never be approached with a penny stock tip that could possibly make you some money. Just fight off any impatience you feel to gobble up $50,000 worth, and apply the techniques in the earlier chapters of this book to do your own due diligence.
After that, if you still feel inclined, you can proceed with confidence that you are taking full responsibility for your actions. If the stock tanks after you buy it, you may want to blame your friend, but it is really your own fault.
You should also know that on some occasions you may be able to get involved with one of these promotional companies and make money, despite the fact that it is a terrible operation, or the interest is purely based upon some rumor running rampant. As more and more people buy in, the share price may climb even if there is no justification besides the rumor mill.
If you are getting involved while keeping this in mind, and you are willing to accept the risk, and you think you are buying in early enough, you may be able to turn some profit. However, everyone always thinks that they are in early enough, but they almost never are.
Specific Prices
If you ever are given specific prices that a stock is supposed to hit, you should immediately feel cautious. We are not talking about becoming a subscriber to PennyStocks.com and getting their target buy and sell prices that are based on research and calculations. We are talking about the tip you hear where your colleague is saying that "As soon as ABC gets the patent, the stock is going to hit $7.00!"
Firstly, the $7.00 number does not come from your colleague's research. It comes directly from the mouth of the promoter who started the rumor, because he will be selling at $5.50. He needs to make sure that all of his 'goats' are locked in, waiting for that last price spike while he unloads his shares. Without a target high-price as bait, profit-takers may erode his efforts before he skips town.
In addition, beyond providing price opinions that are based upon professional research, it is not legal to guarantee, or otherwise imply a guarantee of a future stock price. While some traders are better than others at predicting share price activity, no one can know the prices to which a stock will travel, and if they pretend to, they are either dishonest or naive.
Professional Analysts That Are Not Really That Professional
It seems that every penny stock web page out there is claiming to have professional analysts and research teams. As most of the penny stock web sites are programmed by kids using their parents' computers, it makes me wonder exactly what they mean by 'professional' and 'research team.'
It also makes me feel bad for the innocent web surfers who were snared by this trap. Certainly they had no way of knowing that the claims were false, but it is nearly impossible to encourage regulatory bodies to take any action against these claims. (I may have found a way, so visit our section later in this chapter entitled, The New Sheriff in Town).
If you are going to try one of these other services, despite my continued warnings as well as the shameless promotion of my own service, make sure to test them with questions.
Message Boards
Never have I seen such a cesspool of mis-information. I highly recommend avoiding them at all costs. In most cases, a message board's activity is made up of a handful of individuals arguing with one another, their positions being driven mainly by whether or not they own shares. And as often as not, their comments are so incorrect or misunderstood that they do more harm than good.
A message board is the tool of the naive. Use the quality research techniques we have described in this book and leave the message boards to the monkeys.
