SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[2bit-nothing]

Just my 2bits

Ya, like someone once said "all you need is a pen and a ruler to make a million"

The retracement for the upleg of Sept3 stopped right at the mid-point of Fib 618/786. That's where I find most dramatic reaction will do. (perhaps someone can offer an explaination why the mid-point?) Now, the rebound from here is expected to go up to the upper bound (OEX 483) of the down channel from Sept23. That is exactly 382 retracement. The deep blue line is the long term up trend line from Mar9 low to present.

(1) The bulls argument
The downward channel is bullish and it will break out of the OEX 483 area and will continue to go up

(2) The bears argument
382 retracement is all that bulls get in a down trend and besides it has to finish the 5th wave inside the channel (may be someone can explain this one) and retest the long term blue line at OEX 470 for any meaningful bounce and if it falls out then bears will come out of the woods.

Place your bets folks. From here to OEX 483 is a high probability trade and beyond that is anybody's guess.

2bit