Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

Philadelphia Bank Index

The bank index is at an important point in its wave count.

The bullish wave count is wave D of an ending diagonal that started in April '04. Stochastics indicate oversold, so a bounce is due. MACD changed way too fast for a longer term down trend to continue. The 50 day moving avg is supporting price at this moment.

The bearish wave count is a daily wave 1 of weekly wave 3 that started a few days ago. The Bollinger bands have opened up and the price is moving down along the lower band. MACD is still giving a sell signal. The 20 day moving avg (the middle of the Bollinger Band) is now sloping down.

The reason for uncertainty is the price pattern near the 52 week highs. If a truncated teminal wave occurred near the end of March '04, the pullback should have been sharper in respect to time. There was too much time consolidation. A clear downside motive wave started in April. The prices have not gone higher than the start of this motive wave. If the price drops below $92.50, a larger wave 3 is unfolding. If the price breaks above $100, then an ending diagonal is most likely in play, above $102.50 is a definite.


http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$BKX,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dd][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La1...