<<<I'd say that even with Elagolix being 3 years or so away from market, if one believes that the drug will ultimately make it there and have even a modest dent in what is a big market, the stock looks a bit interesting at just a market cap of ~$125 million (enterprise value of ~$60 million).>>>
That is indeed what is interesting me. We can all go, WOW!!! that is a potential multi-billion market. Looking at the details that may or may not be the case, but it seems to me that a pill that can produce a minimal amount of bone loss, that is effective, and that mayhave a long life cycle such as elagolix is worth more than $130 million or so, even if cash and other assets are ignored.
Look at CVTX and ranexa. Sales sucked and that was worth more than $130 million.
I do think that NBIX is suffering the post indiplon blues and the fact that one needs to wait for more clarification. A strong partnership agreement could easily double or triple the value of NBIX...NBIX management has been promising a partner on elagolix for quite a long time now however. I think they are also caught up in their own rhetoric and would have been better just to stay quiet until something closed.
I don't own NBIX yet, but it is a very interesting target to delve down into some more given the valuation issue and the potential of elagolix that does not have to be the greatest thing since toasted bread to dramatically raise the value of the shares in due course (meaning patience, patience, but patience within a definable time frame). If all one has is a hope and a dream and a vision but no definable time frame then that is just a dream. In biotech, if you have a drug that you know works, works well, appears to fit at least a lucrative niche, and has a definable time frame to market, that is a calculated investment. NBIX may very well be that at its current valuation. I am going to delve into it closer.
Tinker
AI
