Sunday, June 14, 2009 7:49:21 AM
I strongly believe it is the latter. In that case you have to compare ERHC's rights to Addax's rights. ERHC doesn't have OPL 291 nor does it have block 1 rights. On the other hand Addax does not have (yet) blocks 5, 6, and 9 rights, nor do they have the crown jewel, two 100% pre-auction choice blocks in Sao Tome and Principe's Exclusive Economic Zone.
I dare say that ERHC, from a potential reserves standpoint, is Addax's equal and probably its senior. ERHC could double all of Addax's current reserves with one prospect in the STPEEZ.
Sinopec bought into AKPO at a $5 per barrel cost. Using that figure and doing that math backwards from the rumored $8B bid I come up with Sinopec buying what it believes is 1.6B barrels of reserves. Since Addax only has 500M on the books Sinopec is saying they'll pay for up to 1.1B potential barrels in the deep water portfolio. Going back to the 2nd paragraph you can see that ERHC has at least that much potential and perhaps much, much more.
If the Chinese are willing to buy Addax it's because they want to control the oil. Buying ERHC is pure control without any baggage whatsoever. He\\, after buying Addax Sinopec will be paying for all of ERHC's costs anyway, there's no way that they won't buy company so they get the oil as well.
With all that said, ERHC will not be bought out until they know how to value themselves, and that means drilling... INCLUDING the STPEEZ.
Get use to the fact that ERHC Energy will be around for years to come.
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