Biotech Values

[tinkershaw]

As far as biotech stock prices go DNDN was at $2.50 a share not more than 2-3 months ago. I remember when ELN was in the $3s before running up to $35 within 24 months, stayed around $8 forever on the way, and it is back down to the $7s now. VRTX fell to $14 on nothing but market manipulation, no other way to explain that.

Long and short is to figure out what a biotech is really worth, then take advantage of market inefficiencies, manipulations, overreactions, market collapses etc., and then have a heck of a lot of patience. Of course this FDA Lovenox approval process is ridiculous. I have the feeling the U.S. Government is going to be desperately in need of generic biologicals such as Lovenox. Dew's latest back of the envelopes showed $500 million per year saved in the U.S. by generic Lovenox alone, multiply that many times over and it might even equal a blip on the medical cost spending spreadsheet, which is better then any of the other so called "cost saving" provisions being bandied about. So it has to happen. I say this year, but yes, could be next year and if so that will be awfully, awfully frustrating to say the least.

Tinker