Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio Member Forum

[RichardTC]

I'm really getting sick of the 2009 recovery BS that CNBC's guests keep peddling. I know that traders/investors are bullish by nature, but at what point do you recognize that this isn't a V bottom situation?

Is it when the largest insurer in the country goes back for a SECOND government bailout? Is it when the Big 3 automakers go to Congress with hat in hand and effectively double their bailout request from a few weeks earlier? Is it when we post the highest monthly increase in unemploment in 34 years? Is it when shipping/commerce grind to a screeching halt worldwide as evidenced by the Baltic Dry Good Index? Is it when 10 year Treasuries are yielding 2.6% which suggests absolutely abyssmal growth for a decade? Is it when oil prices (which is one of the best indicators of marginal demand/growth) plummets from $147 to $41 in 6 months? Seriously, when?

I've stated repeatedly that I don't believe we're in store for GD2. However, that doesn't mean that we're about to V bottom our way out of this.