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Monday, 11/19/2007 7:38:29 AM

Monday, November 19, 2007 7:38:29 AM

Post# of 13
Soros, Greenspan, Gross: More subprime fallout ahead
Posted Nov 6th 2007 2:07PM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: Bad news, China, Economic data, Housing, Federal Reserve

When financial world's mavens speak - - such as Alan Greenspan, George Soros, Bill Gross - - the markets usually take notice.

And when the mavens speak in unison regarding economic fundamentals, well, a word to the wise: be certain to record those data points before forming your own conclusion regarding the U.S. economy's health.

Soros, in a lecture at New York University, said the U.S. economy was on the verge of "a serious correction."
"I think we are definitely in for a slowdown that I think will be a bigger slowdown than (Federal Reserve Chairman Ben) Bernanke is seeing," Soros said, Reuters reported.
Soros also said that, for now, China is the "absolute winner" at the start of the globalization age, that its economy will continue to grow at a strong rate in the years ahead, but that in 10 years time "there could be a financial crisis in China." However, Soros refused to state what currency positions he held or where he thought the dollar, euro and the pound - - the world's primary reserve currencies - - were headed in 2008.

Meanwhile, former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Tuesday that cutting the supply of excess homes in the United States is key to stabilizing the financial system at home and the rest of the world.

Greenspan told Tokyo business leaders via video conference from Washington, D.C. that the key to resolving the subprime issue, and by extension, the international financial system, rested on "getting rid of probably 200,000-300,000 excess units in inventory [unsold houses in the U.S.]," The Associated Press reported.

Further, PIMCO's Bill Gross, chief investment officer of the world's largest bond fund, mirrored Greenspan's statement, and argued that the worst of the subprime crisis is still ahead:

"We've only begun to see the pain from the standpoint of the homeowner in terms of those monthly payments," Gross told business news channel CNBC Tuesday. "Defaults and delinquencies will increase as we extend throughout 2007 and into 2008." Gross said he sees another $250 billion in defaults for the next two years, and that large lenders such as Citigroup (NYSE: C), Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER), and Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) will be paying the price.

Economic Analysis: Taken as a whole, the three's comments do not represent a resounding affirmation of the soundness of economic conditions in the U.S., to say the least. Greenspan's comments appear to be the most illuminating and prescient: illuminating, in that they summarized the crux of the problem facing the financial system - -namely, unsold homes; prescient, in that they point to likely economic conditions, six- to nine-months ahead. Greenspan offered no recommendations regarding how to price and sell the up to 300,000 unsold homes in an orderly, systematic fashion, but with the core problem more-clearly identified, that will be the next compelling question facing policy makers [including the U.S. Federal Reserve], as well realtors and home owners alike.

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