Thursday, October 18, 2007 12:21:41 AM
1) CX-717/RD results in Spring 2008, pharma deal for this by Summer/Fall 2008. Not a great deal, but perhaps $5-10 mil in upfronts.
2) High impacts R+D collaboration - get this done by next Summer. Upfronts modest, say $5 million, plus $5 mil per year for ongoing R+D support.
3) CX-701 - start Phase 2a in AD in Q4-08 (improvement in cognition/memory). Get results by Summer/Fall 2009. These results (supplemented by the CX-717 PET evidence), then supports a pretty decent BP deal. Cortex gets enough upfronts for 1.5-2 years burn (say $30 mil). This could then be supplemented by a favorable financing since the share price should be up considerably.
4) What to do next? By this time, CX-1763 or another backup is through Phase 1 and ready for Phase 2. Do something with that compound, also consider a non-Ampakine inlicense as well. Also, if a high impact is finally ready, do something with that inhouse (orphan indication).
Anyway, this scenario is a long shot, and relies on good Phase 1 results for CX-701, good Phase 2a results for CX-717 RD (and a pharma willing to take a chance on CX-717), and good Phase 2a results for CX-701/AD. It would take considerable luck, but it might be possible to pull off (maybe).
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