Thanks, Jack. Glad to IBM is expecting 2004 to mark the start of the next growth cycle. I hope they are right! Let's assume there is a multi-year growth cycle starting right now, what does that mean for various companies?
AMD: Can't think of a better time to be launching a new advanced architecture. Qualified in 2003, ready to roll for 2004. Too bad they don't have more manufacturing until 2006, but they can focus on the high end meanwhile. Maybe IBM will fab for them in 2005, maybe not.
Intel: What they lack in product they make up in manufacturing. Their costs are lower now, so they can make money on the middle to lower part of the market. Good thing since they let AMD grab the high end of x86! With more money going into IT, Itanium will get a boost in sales. Can it make up for years of delays and dissipointments? Can they make it more than a niche product for HPQ? Stay tuned!
IBM: A ladle in every pot. IBM is well positioned for a tech expansion, no matter which way the winds blow. They seem to have their best overall strategy since the IBM 360 days. A real reversal from their wandering in the weeds in the 1980s!
HPQ: Doing very well in PCs right now, jury is still out on their Itanium strategy. I think they will do well. They'll lose some customers in the transition (which IBM will pick up) but HPQ is the one place where Itanium looks like a sure bet for success.
SUNW: The laggard of the bunch, SUNW is now throwing their lot in with Opteron. Should have done that at least a year earlier, they are at the start of a product transition just as the industry is recovering. They will miss the first part of the growth cycle but can be there for much of it if they move fast. They do have money in the bank, always helpful if spent wisely.
DELL: It is very significant that HPQ outsold DELL in worldwide PCs in 2003. Since a rising tide lifts all boats, Dell will do alright in a tech upturn. However, they do not seem to be the powerhouse that they were a couple of years ago - their marketshare march has been halted.
eMAchines: So far the only company that seems to be turning an AMD relationship into gold. Advancing into the top 5 in the US market in Q4, eMachines is a very interesting company to watch. Still mainly serves the home market - if they are to continue to grow, they have to break into the business market. If they do, Dell will have some real worries.
Gateway: Honorable mention for historical reasons. Now a general consumer electronics retailer, their future is in high end stereos and HDTV.
IMHO.
Edit: Forgot about Apple. 2% of worldwide sales, 3% of US sales in 2003, they will complete their fall into irrelevance as their last software bulwark, Adobe, now is featuring fonts that work equally well on PCs and Macs. Their last market, graphics design, is slipping away. Apple's future is as a music provider (iTunes).
AI
