I look at accumulation/distribution and CMF, and then I confirm it by watching the market makers on the l2s.
For me, the market makers are really the nail in coffin. When I see HDSN or VFIN parked on the ask, I assume dilution.
Regarding shorted stocks, I treated shorting the same as dilution. The effect to shareholders is the same.
I don't expect penny shorts to ever have to cover, and I've been in too many shorted stocks to think that I will ever win against those guys, esp. if they turn out to be the PIPE financers who are naked shorting the play. Generally, when I see shorting confirmed (add to that, a couple of aggressive, insulting free posters bashing on the message board) I move on. Too many better plays out there.
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If you take anything I say as advice, you're crazier than I am.