AVANIR PHARMACEUTICALS (AVNR)

[Gd2Aussie3]

Verylong...Avanir right now is very perplexing. Where will the stock be in 3 months? 6 months? And 1-2 years? We all have a better shot at guessing where we'll be in those time spans and, whether or not our kids and grand kids will see Santa, the Easter Bunny and the Tooth fairy. However, I'll give it a go.

First Avanir has a conference call coming up on May 9th. A good guess is the stock will ride up a little before than. Take advantage of the calls and sell them right before the web cast. Avanir will release complete financial results for the three and six months ended March 31, 2007. Any one knows that Avanir has not had a stellar year and should report an increase in losses due to their R & D expenses, despite the fact they had to lay off some personnel. The only catch is what will they show as revenues from FazaClo® (expected net revenues of approximately $4.1 million are predicted). If revenues come in higher, then the PPS could increase by $1.50 for the short term. That scenario is unlikely since the revenue projections appear to have been supplied by Avanir themselves.

In six months with no meaningful PRs, the stock should settle down to around $3 or lower. Unfortunately, the last PR on diabetic neuropathic pain isn't strong enough to keep the PPS up in light of the company's own expectations, "The Company expects this to be the first of two pivotal studies required for the approval of Zenvia in the treatment of diabetic neuropathic pain." One study could last six months or longer. Two is any one's guess.

1-2 years. Well, the above just about takes in from 3 months to one year. Two years and Zenvia comes into focus again for the treatment of IEED and that certainly will get investors excited again.

Now I skipped the limbo period, which is the time frame between one and two. This will largely depend on how sales of FazaClo do. If they keep increasing as expected, then Avanir could see around $10 in that time. Is there a sleeper in this period? Not in Avanir's pipeline, as all other items in Avanir's pipeline are in phases II or lower.

Outside of their pipeline? Possibly. And, it is in their establishing a cGMP manufacturing process and to test efficacy of the fully human monoclonal antibody treatment against inhalation anthrax in non-human primates. If successful, these pre-clinical studies can be used to support the filing of an investigational new drug application (IND) for AVANIR’s potential anti-anthrax drug candidate, AVP-21D9. This is being done with funding from National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIH/NIAID) under its Cooperative Research Partnerships for Biodefense program. Avanir has been involved with this since the first anthrax scare. Remember, anthrax isn't much of an issue; however, Avanir has alluded in the past that their findings are aimed at other allergy and infectious diseases and biodefenses. To say the lest, this program is way over due.

Hope this helps. Or, at best, I put you to sleep and you can't remember it all. LOL

G' day Mate,

Aussie