Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[tredenwater2]

If later they give us an offer we can't refuse, we might sell, +150 bucks a share, maybe.

With all due respect $150/share or 13 billion buyout would be for Schizophrenia or AD and would not take into account future revenue. A buyout for 15x our MC with projected revenue is a lowball. There is a reason Dr. Misdling is sitting on a stockpile of medicine and I believe it is to accelerate the sales process upon approval and partnership announcement.

When Anavex holds all the IP, trial design, EMA submission, and manufacturing, it takes a lot of “acquiring” companies control away and therefore imo the buyout price will be 30-40x and only after sales can be factored in, not before.

Remember too the myriad of trials lined up to go with successful POC phase 2 trials, I think there is even a red bow on a few. BP BO candidates would be fools not to offer at the 30-40x evaluation listed above.

Personally if I were Dr. M I would wait 2-3 years after a few more trials are completed and the case is made for prophylactic use. Thats when the real dough is rolling.