Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[12x]

Anavex’s website still lists Dr. Kellmeyer as SVP of Regulatory Affairs, but she’s now officially part of Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD), which gave her 137,500 options. AVXL likely didn’t offer that kind of upside—SVPs aren’t classified as executive officers, so they don’t file Form 3/4s, and ChatGPT estimates her grant was probably closer to 10–20k options (like the Principal Financial Officer). With AARD trading at almost $14 and her grant price at $9.89, she is already half a million in the money.

The timing raises real questions: AVXL received EMA’s List of Questions on 4/25, and Kellmeyer left by 5/19. There’s been no PR, no Form 8-K, and no visible replacement. The loss of their regulatory lead during Clock Stop 1 is concerning.

ChatGPT estimates this drops the MAA approval probability by ~15%, from 75% to 60%:
-Loss of regulatory lead during Clock Stop ? –5–10%
-Big jump in equity moving to AARD ? –3–5%
-No replacement or update ? –2–3%
-Still no sign the EMA timeline has slipped yet, but this kind of turnover at a key moment shouldn’t be ignored.