Bigworld, Looking at the Vix chart, the really big spikes are fairly infrequent, with only 3 over the last 5 years (below). In between these mega spikes are numerous smaller ones.
1 - Feb-Mar 2020 (Covid crash)
2 - Aug 2024
3 - April 2025
Looking at the bottoms, over time they tend to be like a wave. When the broader stock market is in a long uptrend, the VIX bottoms will occur at progressively higher levels, and then will gradually become lower when the stock market is in an extended downtrend. We've had two of these 'waves' since the 2020 spike, with the Vix bottoms reflecting the broader stock market.
In addition to the Vix chart 'waves' to indicate the likely bottoms, several indicators appear fairly accurate in signaling both the tops and bottoms for the Vix --> the RSI and the Chande Trend Meter. These combined with the chart level and its shape (waves) should work reasonably well.
Right now the $Vix is down to 18, so should be getting fairly close to a bottom, based on the above criteria. It appears 15-16 could be the likely target area to watch. The RSI is currently 37.22 and falling, and if it gets to 30-32, then we might be close to the bottom. Just a 'guesstimate' though. You seem to have a good feel for it, so TIA for any insights :o)
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AI
