GOLDBUGS AMEX Goldbugs Index (GOLD)

[DiscoverGold]

NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 18, 2025

This market made a new high today after the past 3 trading days. The market opened lower and closed lower. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 27592. Therefore, this closed lower and it was holding still for the close.

Up to now, we have not broken out and it still remains below our uptrend technical resistance projection which stands at 27890.

Clearly, this market is still above the critical support point at this time, which lies at 26749. Initial support lies at 27087. This market has exceeded intraday 1 of three projected resistance points and it has closed below 2 others. Our underlying pivot providing some support lies at 27410 and a close below this level will warn of a shift to retest support. Up to now, the projected extreme resistance stands at 27709 and 28173.

During the last session, we did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode support indicator which was 26689 settling at 27509. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 27168 which we closed above at this time. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 27281. Remember, opening below this number in the next session will warn that the market may enter an abrupt panic sell-off to the downside. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds above it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. However, a break of this session's low of 27292 and a closing below that will warn of a continued decline remains possible. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode support lies at 26669 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal that a sharp decline is possible.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 27168
Previous... 26689
Tomorrow... 27281

This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 27613. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during November 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 27350 and overhead resistance forming above at 27613. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 11th at 25415, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 28th. We have been generally trading up for the past 4 weeks from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 6.257%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 27613 failed to exceed the previous high of 28018 made back during the week of October 28th. That rally amounted to only six weeks.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 28018. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 26188, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 25967 reaching 26246.

Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

DiscoverGold