Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[frrol]

There's some confirmatory silliness here about "50 world class scientists" but most of them are simply the PI's. Another thing to keep in mind: when a biotech or pharma says "this shows the drug works and can be approved" it is making something akin to a 'lawyerly' argument. It's not a statement of fact. "My lawyers insist I'm innocent" is nice to hear, but a jury may conclude differently.

Regarding the OLE: it's really good to see the company is enthusiastic about OLE results. My understanding is that we are presenting in two forums. That's good to see; the company clearly feels there is something worth showing. At the very least, the OLE data will likely support what the controlled study already showed. But an important question is, what does it show on ADL? The leaked abstract indicates something that the company will characterize as 'signal' for ADL: separation at week 192. That is not necessarily the same thing, and not nearly as compelling, as showing slowing of ADL decline. Watch for an ADL graph, and look for shallowing of the trend, for both the 'early' and 'delayed' groups. After all, this is a long term study (144/192 weeks) and the population is by now well into AD decline overall, particularly the 'delayed'. If ADL is not showing credible benefit after 3 years or longer, that's a potential issue. If it is, that's big. We'll find out in two weeks. Looking forward to it.