
Monday, October 21, 2024 11:02:43 AM
The next issue and perhaps the most important will be the balance within Congress. If it goes all to one party, then things will get done. If not, then we'll probably be in a lame duck state for four more years. That won't bode well for the markets.
Despite which candidate wins, AI will continue to push the markets forward. If Trump wins, add crypto stocks to the list, at least in the short term.
My gut tells me that if Trump wins the US elections by a landslide, both wars will end on the ground, but will likely continue virtually with cyber attacks, etc. That's good and bad. Good because the devastation will stop and the rebuilding will begin. Bad because world economies today are setup to support wars. The transition to rebuilding will take some time. In short GDP's will suffer. Deflation will become a global threat. ...and markets will linger sideways with a downward bias.
FYI: the global uncertainty and debt rise needed to support growth will hurt Fiat currencies, which may or may not help crypto but will help gold. Crypto will depend upon how governments of developed countries choose to regulate it. Although Trump says he'll support it, he's also stating that the USD must remain the global reserve currency. Both statements are somewhat contradictory. No surprise...
GS may emerge with his mergers if crypto surges again. He may also emerge if and when the war in Israel ends. What matters now is a 'smooth' transition so the US economy can continue to grow, ...very important for the rest of the world. With China faltering, Russia mired, and Europe declining, the US economy is the only major economy that can pull everyone out of their own pending stagflation. You can be quite certain that the 'world leaders' are aware.
JMHO
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