Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Probabilities of various RVNC outcomes, IMHO….

The cutoff date for all cases listed below is 12/31/24. (The 12/31/24 date is arbitrary, but I must have a time limit in order to define the cases.)

a) Crown buyout closes on the original terms: 46%.

b) Crown’s tender offer either doesn’t happen or it fails to garner a majority of RVNC’s shares, and hence there is no RVNC buyout at this time: 29%.

c) Crown raises its offer and the buyout closes on the new terms: 9%.

d) Crown raises its offer but the tender still fails (and hence there is no buyout at this time): 2%.

d) A White Night bests Crown’s offer and a bidding war ensues: 8%.

e) The situation remains unresolved as of 12/31/24, possibly tied up in court: 6%.

I do not have a case for RVNC’s accepting a lowered buyout offer from Crown (or another party) because I consider the probability of this to be negligible.