Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[edcoolidge]

I expect Q1 to be very weak. The consumer is obviously retrenching. Ironically this should help Daxxify sales since it's a better value to the patient than Botox—but unfortunately Daxxify still has a premium price attached to it by many injectors.

Interest rates are also likely to stay higher this year than many anticipated at the start of the year. Revance's challenged balance sheet and recent surprise dilution will keep RVNC hyper-sensitive to interest rates for the foreseeable future.

Taken together I wouldn't be surprised if we see RVNC at $2 in the next few months. Insolvency is definitely a growing risk especially if Foley keeps making mistakes but there are still many levers that can be pulled to avoid that.

All of that said, Daxxify is clearly the best toxin on the market. There's only so long that the mediocre CosmeticMDs can hide that from their patients. Even if another long acting toxin comes to market Daxxify should be able to take significant market share from Botox and the other lesser toxins. If Daxxify sales establish a solid growth trend then RVNC's share price will recover.