Sunday, March 26, 2023 4:10:24 AM
Mar. 25, 2023
Issues around capital availability could become a problem for the company.
We are very worried about reflexivity risks. The happenings with SVB Financial is going to be a problem for all businesses like LWLG.
The issue, for the longest time, has been the lack of commercial results. Investors need to be unforgiving in scrutinizing the execution over 2023 and 2024 on the commercialization timelines, but also need to consider how the capital environment has changed. 2023 will be the decisive year for both capital market conditions for early-stage businesses as well as for LWLG specifically.
The issue is nothing commercial has happened. The company burns about $10 million in cash per year on a $25 million cash balance.
More dilution is coming.
Overhead could start rising in 2024. Currently the company is demonstrating its products for manufacturability at foundries, and results for that are expected at the end of 2023, but 2024 is when they really have to start trying to license out their products and start creating a commercial offering.
LWLG will have to spend more on marketing and trying to pitch their technology to manufacturers. This will take time and effort. 2024 is when these efforts begin but not necessarily when they start bearing fruit. Many OEMs are going to be in Japan, where corporate culture moves slowly. Even in more dynamic countries the sorts of stakeholders that LWLG will deal with are going to take their time. Meanwhile LWLG will have to dilute, trying to raise capital in a market that suddenly became a lot more hostile to early stage businesses in the wake of SVB Financial's (SIVB) blowup.
The SVB blowup was no small thing. If credit standards are tightening and its sprouting from venture-facing banks, then the retreat of venture debt is going to cause a retreat in venture equity, because both of those depend on each other to increase the likelihood of a successful investment.
Publicly-listed pre-revenue and early-stage companies just like Lightwave Logic have demonstrated that public markets are absolutely not a friendly place for investments like these anymore.
The dispute is not around their technology, nor is it around their commercial model. Licensing out is a good idea, and it will save them cash which is paramount. But they will have to spend more cash regardless, and their stock price will likely fall further as capital markets start to really feel the intended credit crunch that monetary authorities have been aiming for. Dilution rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future, and shareholders have to hope that commercialization happens as management plans. While the TAM is very large, LWLG stock needs to deliver for current shareholders to see enough of that upside to take the risk today.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4590050-lightwave-logic-2023-will-be-decisive?mailingid=30957007&messageid=tech_daily&serial=30957007.52573&utm_campaign=Tech%2BDaily%2BV1%2B2023-03-25&utm_content=tech_daily_control&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=Tech%2BDaily
Recent LWLG News
- Lightwave Logic and Polariton to Jointly Showcase Packaged Electro-Optic Polymer Modulators at the European Conference on Optical Communications • PR Newswire (US) • 09/24/2024 08:05:00 PM
- Lightwave Logic Receives 2024 Industry Innovation Award for Hybrid PIC/Optical Integration Platform at the European Conference on Optical Communications (ECOC) • PR Newswire (US) • 09/24/2024 12:31:00 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/09/2024 08:00:09 PM
- LIGHTWAVE LOGIC APPOINTS FORMER DUPONT EXECUTIVE THOMAS CONNELLY, JR. TO BOARD OF DIRECTORS • PR Newswire (US) • 09/09/2024 12:31:00 PM
- Form 3 - Initial statement of beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/13/2024 08:58:16 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/12/2024 08:30:07 PM
- Lightwave Logic Provides Second Quarter 2024 Corporate Update • PR Newswire (US) • 08/12/2024 12:31:00 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/09/2024 08:14:43 PM
- Form 424B5 - Prospectus [Rule 424(b)(5)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/09/2024 08:10:18 PM
- Form 424B5 - Prospectus [Rule 424(b)(5)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/09/2024 08:08:25 PM
- Form EFFECT - Notice of Effectiveness • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/06/2024 04:15:14 AM
- Form S-3/A - Registration statement under Securities Act of 1933: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/31/2024 09:05:40 PM
- Lightwave Logic Invited to Present at 2024 European Conference on Optical Communications • PR Newswire (US) • 07/30/2024 12:31:00 PM
- Form S-3 - Registration statement under Securities Act of 1933 • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/26/2024 09:07:10 PM
- Lightwave Logic Appoints Industry Veteran Yves LeMaitre to Board of Directors • PR Newswire (US) • 07/23/2024 12:31:00 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/22/2024 08:47:34 PM
- Lightwave Logic Reaffirms Commercialization Timeline Presented at the 2024 Annual Shareholder Meeting • PR Newswire (US) • 06/03/2024 12:31:00 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/24/2024 08:01:14 PM
- Lightwave Logic and Advanced Micro Foundry (AMF) Partner to Accelerate Development of Silicon Photonics Modulators Using Electro-Optic Polymers • PR Newswire (US) • 05/21/2024 12:31:00 PM
- Lightwave Logic Provides First Quarter 2024 Corporate Update • PR Newswire (US) • 05/13/2024 12:31:00 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/10/2024 08:41:09 PM
- Lightwave Logic Demonstrates Thought Leadership with Critical Contributions to Global Integrated Photonics Industry Roadmap • PR Newswire (US) • 04/16/2024 12:31:00 PM
- Lightwave Logic Secures New Patent for Diamondoid Non-linear Optical Chromophore Patent to Improves Material Robustness • PR Newswire (US) • 04/01/2024 12:31:00 PM
- Lightwave Logic EO Polymer Achieves World-Class Performance of 400Gbps with Plasmonic Mach Zehnder Modulator • PR Newswire (US) • 03/28/2024 12:31:00 PM
- Lightwave Logic Demonstrates World-Class 200Gbps Heterogeneous Polymer/Silicon Photonic Modulator Results • PR Newswire (US) • 03/25/2024 12:31:00 PM
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CEO David B. Dorwart Anticipates a Bright Future at Good Gaming Inc. Through His Most Recent Shareholder Update • GMER • Sep 25, 2024 8:30 AM
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Integrated Ventures, Inc Announces Strategic Partnership For GLP-1 (Semaglutide) Procurement Through MedWell USA, LLC. • INTV • Sep 24, 2024 8:45 AM