My 2 cents:
- WHO Meeting Monday or Tuesday and emergency will be declared as the countries are requesting it to happen as soon as possible
- SIGA keeps quiet as they are involved with BARDA and others, who by contract enforce companies to be quiet (NDA's, etc.). That's the game SIGA is involved in. I have never stumbled over SIGA before MPOX.
- I guess - also by contract - they need to give priority to BARDA/US
- Anything that is left they will be able to distribute, but I guess right now, there is not so much left...but huge demand
- This is also shown by the talks of a potential second manufacturing site. Question here is: a brand new factory or a new sub-contractor. Obviously, the second is fester, the first would be set up more to their needs, but would take ages to build, qualify, etc.
- If BARDA asks for earlier delivery under their existing multi-year contract, SIGA most likely won't PR it, as it would just be earlier delivery than initially planned. This we would only see in the quarterly financials
- If the rumour about the huge Korea contract is true and only anywhere close to the size it is rumoured at, then this takes quite a while to sign.
- France approving TPOXX today will mean, more EU countries will follow and an order from France can be expected
All in all (imho) the next 1-2 weeks will show what is really behind it. And I believe we are not told the full truth by WHO/governments...so far.
Do I like SIGA to be that quiet? No.
Do I like that so far only a contract for $13mio has been secured? No.
Do I like the share price? No.
Do I like what might happen in a short time? Yes.
I am done buying. Holding steady and put my shares for sale at $500, so they are not used for anything else (you know what I mean). Do I believe the share price will reach $500? Unlikely. With the 1 production plant at full capa (780'000 - 1'000'000 treatments per year) it might reach $100 - 200 and if a second factory comes into play soon, then maybe double these numbers.
....but: there are risks too (what if adverse reactions to the treatment?, new studies ongoing with unknown outcomes, competition, vaccine vs. treatment, etc.). So invest if you are confident and even if so, only what you can afford. The world is crazy nowadays and what seems to be logical, might go completely opposite.
Good Luck to all!
