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NY Crude Oil Futures (CL) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 14, 2022

The NY Crude Oil Futures has been in an uptrend for the past 2 days closing above the previous session's high quite significantly by 2.90%. The broader rally has peaked with the last high established at 11137 back on 05/05 6 days ago. We did elect 3 Bearish Reversals from this high. Clearly, this high was formed after a rally of 8 days.

Currently, the market is trading in a neutral position on our indicators but it is trading strongly higher up some 7.77% from the previous session low. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 11686. We need to close above that projection target to keep the upward advance in motion. Our Stochastics are also turning upward.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during March. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2018 and 2011 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2022. We have elected two Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 10645 and overhead resistance forming above at 11137. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 7th at 13050, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 29th. We have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a very dramatic move of 11.82% in a stark panic type decline.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of May 2nd reaching 11137 failed to exceed the previous high of 13050 made back during the week of March 7th. That rally amounted to only three typical reaction weeks. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2020 while the last high formed on 2021. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Critical support still underlies this market at 6700 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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