Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU)

[sambeaux]

Fact(s): Coal prices will be higher, for much longer than anyone envisioned six months ago. The market is still pricing BTU like these prices are a one quarter fluke. They are treating the futures markets like they are unreliable and will collapse. They are treating Thermal Coal like its still due for extinction by 2024.
None of these could be further from the truth. Europe learned last fall the folly of depending on renewables, and the cost of relying on LNG imports.
Then they learned they do not want to rely on Russian NG, or Russian Coal. So they suck up US NG, causing higher NG prices (hence higher thermal coal prices) in the US, AND they need seaborne Thermal and Met coal to replace Russian supply, and to displace NG trading at ~ $600 a ton equivalent for what they can get.
Sometime in 2023 BTU will have cash equal to its current day Market Cap (of $3 billion) on the balance sheet, no debt, and still be generating ~ $10 a share in earnings each year, for likely another decade or longer.