Niocorp Developments Ltd (NB)

[grunt23]

Happy Saturday to all Niocorp faithfuls:

A decade or so ago, incredible how fast time goes by, we initiated an investement in Niocorp formerly QRDF. At that time, we agreed that we would stay with that investment through 2022. Well here we are, almost there.

So, where do we go from here. Well, for starters, Nicorp is now a totally different enterprise than Quantum Rare Earths was. Interestingly enough, we will be coming full circle, at least in my opinion, we should. Refering to the possibility of bringing REE's back into the picture.

Yes, we are still waiting on finance, the more I think about it the more I believe that finance should wait until the studies related to the rare earth studies are completed and "our" company is able to publicize the expected earnings from the three rare earth oxides currently being analyzed.

This idea will most likely require a full update to the 2019 Feasibility Study. Well, in my opinion "lets do it". So what if finance is postponed to, say mid 2022. Bankers, specially the debt side are the most risk adverse bunch in the universe. We have to prove that we "do not need" their monies. So, the most earnings potential we can present the easier it will be to deal with them.

From where we stand today, refering to earnings, we have a pretty good idea from the 2019 feasibility study. Where will we be once the REE's are included, thats the billion dollar question.

I believe, we all should attempt to calculate how large that "new" source of earnings the 3 oxides would add to the bottom line. Four elements involved. Yes, I understand that most REE's are present in the Elk Creek deposit, however, at the present time only 3 oxides are being studied.

So let's get started:

Bibliography:
Feasibility Studies from SEDAR dated 8/10/2017 and 5/29/2019.
Periodic Table of Elements.
https://www.niocorp.com/niocorp-scores-initial-success-in-metallurgical-testing-of-elk-creek-ore-samples-to-optimize-process-and-demonstrate-potential-extraction-of-rare-earth-elements/
https://www.metal.com/Rare-Earth-Oxides
https://www.azcalculator.com/calc/ppm-to-weight-percent.php
https://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/2917-scandium-a-rare-earth-thats-not-really-rare?nopaging=1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scandium
web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2016/finalwebsite/problems/ree.html

Rare earths Niocorp is analizing for probable production:

Heavy Rare earths:- - - -PPM - - - Price (US) per KG as of 11/12/2021

Terbium Oxide (Tb) - - .00002 - - - - - -$1,914.00
Dysprosium Oxide (Dy) .0001 - - - - - - $472.00
Light Rare earths:
Neodymium - Praseodymium Oxide (NdPr)
- - - - - - - - - - - -.0008 - - - - - - $121.00

In attempting to arrive at a dollar value of adding the 3 oxides to the bottom line, I have used as much factual information as possible. These include:

I) Mining 24/7/365. Which will produce 2,900,000 KG per day.
II) Extraction rate for Scandium at 93%. Plenty of documentation exist
stating that REE's behave like Scandium does. That is why sometimes
Scandium is referred as a rare earth. So I will use the .93 in these
calculations.
III) Parts per million (PPM) from the feasibility studies converted to weight %.
IV) Current price of each oxide.

Assumption:
Our mine is scheduled to be in production 24/7/365. Since preventive maintenace must be performed and many other situations will preculde the continuous production from occurring, I will use 300 days per year of actual production.

Just a guess:
We have the solutuions that contain the 4 elements as a by-product of the mining operations. I believe, we will need extra equipment, time, expertise and chemical treatment material to extract the elements from the solutions. So, I venture to guess that it will cost 25% of the value for this purpose. So 75% of the value will be used to obtain the pure profit.

Now, we have the necessary pieces to calculate how much additional profit we could obtian from our mine.

It is unfortunate that the regulating agencies do not provide flexibility to startup companies to show the potential results in their planned operations. Sometimes the idea that they must protect the invetors from the company is totally exagerated. As in this case. I want to express my total respect and admiration for the entire work force at Niocorp.

It is my intention to arrive at a "reasonable" estimate of profits. So rounding down will be employed. Watch out for the number of zeros after the period and the first significant digit.

Terbium (Tb):
2,900,000 Kg per day x (extraction rate) .93 = 2,697,000 Kg x (PPM) .00002 = 53 Kg per day. 53Kg x $1,914.00 (price per Kg) = $101,442.00 per day x .75 (profit) = $76,081.00 profit per day X 300 days = $22,800,000.00 per year profit.

Dysprosium (Dy):
2,900,000 Kg x .93 = 2,697,000 Kg x .0001 (PPM) = 269 Kg per day. 269Kg x $472.00 (price per Kg) = $126,968.00 per day x .75 = $95,226.00 profit per day x 300 days = $28,500,000.00 per year profit.

Neodymium/Praseodymium (NdPr):
2,900,000Kg per day x .93 = 2,697,000Kg x .0008 = 2,157Kg per day x $121.00 price per Kg = $260,000 profit per day x .75 = $195,000.00 profit per day x 300 days = $58,500,000.00 per year profit.

A pretty sweet addition to our bottom line.
Tb - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - $22,824,000.00
Dy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -$28,567,000.00
NdPr - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -$58,500,000.00
Profit from the 3 oxides: - - - - - $109,800,000.00

That is a 33% increase in profits!

Besides making a comment about the source of financing, I am still of the opinion that a large chunk of the finance will originate in South America way South that is. Hope Iris has her ears open. Not much else to say.
Have a great one.

Happy Investing!