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Re: Jaymes post# 103

Wednesday, 09/22/2021 1:14:15 AM

Wednesday, September 22, 2021 1:14:15 AM

Post# of 143
I have the opposite problem of not knowing when to get out. XD Do you go by gut feel or look at something on the charts, or what?


I do most of my trading using moving average lines so I can try to gauge momentum. IMO it's the momentum swings that drive the price action, especially if you can catch the bottom of a downtrend (or if you're super lucky, the bottom of a breakdown like FDVRF on 9/16 which I totally missed, lol) I don't gamble with choppy trading; it's better to wait for stagnation or snipe the bottom of a downtrend.

Look up something called the Golden Cross https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goldencross.asp and Death Cross as the theory behind those chart events actually works for any pair of moving average lines!

So here's what I used to use with inline explanations. Sorry for the eyebleed pink. This strategy is valid but it's not as good as method 2 which I'll explain after. I highly recommend hopping on youtube to learn more about these indicators as they help double-check my method 2.










Method 2 is something I've been experimenting with more recently. It's been FANTASTIC for signalling breakouts but it's not so good at predicting trend strength. So I use it in combination with the earlier indicators to watch for breakouts in market sweet spots.

This strategy is based on this video that describes a clever way to use the Williams Alligator indicator to mitigate risk.
Alligator is actually another set of moving average lines but they're a bit more reactive (and prettier) than the Simple Moving Averages I noted earlier. If you follow this guy's rules precisely, you'll know exactly when to buy, sell and stop loss to minimize risk, and you'll also have early warning when a bear trend might be about to end. Using alligator this way, you'll miss surprise trend continuations sometimes, but you'll never take on excessive risk at places where the trend is faltering.

The problem is the Alligator alone doesn't tell you when breakouts will happen... So introduce Williams Fractals and Williams Awesome Oscillator: