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Monday, 07/26/2021 10:41:13 AM

Monday, July 26, 2021 10:41:13 AM

Post# of 462
I don’t post about stocks in any detail very often these days, but I like to find the sleepers before they pop, and $ELMS is the #1 EV sleeper at the moment imo. This is not a buy/sell/hold recommendation, just some information and thoughts about the stock.

Electric Last Mile Solutions (ELMS, formerly FIII)—Class 1 Commercial EV urban delivery vans with increased cargo room and lower cost of ownership than gas engine equivalents.

ELMS is looking to be first to market in the U.S. with an indispensable vehicle for modern times: a Class 1 Commercial EV delivery van with increased cargo space and a lower cost of ownership compared to their gasoline engine competitors—hard to argue with that combination when there’s an unprecedented push towards electrifying fleet vehicles. Here are some links to check out, with more below…

Website: https://electriclastmile.com

March 2021 Analyst Day Presentation: https://s27.q4cdn.com/977566062/files/doc_presentations/ELMS_Analyst_Day_Presentation_March_2021.pdf

February 2021 Investor Presentation: https://forummerger.com/elms_investor.pdf





Vehicles in production this year
Whereas most EV startups won’t have cars on the road until 2022/2023 (if ever), ELMS already has pilot programs with its vehicles and is scheduled to commence production this fall at its Indiana plant once retooling is complete. The only direct competitor for Class 1 EVs in the USA will be Canoo’s vans, which aren’t scheduled for production until 2023. So from available information, ELMS should be first to market, and until Canoo delivers actual vehicles, it’ll be ELMS or gas guzzlers for the Class 1 delivery/cargo van space. This means there’s lots of potential for big fleet deals with major players as online shopping and parcel delivery become even more prominent in the coming months and years—making ELMS a unique company in a key sub-sector of electric vehicles.

This is a meat-and-potatoes EV play: it’s not a luxury SUV that suits itself to twitter memes with bikini models, but it’s the kind of vehicle that’s essential for day-to-day commerce and delivery—and when attention shifts from “the next tesla” hype to actual vehicles in production and on the road, this will be one of the few start-ups that make the cut. They have a plant in Indiana that’s being retooled for EVs, and the vehicle is modeled on (more or less a rebranding of) a van already being produced by Chinese company Chongquing Sokon Industry Group, which I believe I’ve read is an investor in the company, though I don’t have the source in front of me at this moment—please correct me if I’m wrong. As hyped EV passenger vehicles go, FS* is my #1 pick; for as yet un-hyped EV start-ups that will have concrete results sooner than the rest of the pack, ELMS looks very good imo.

Leadership: very experienced in the automotive industry and extremely competent from all available information.



Incentives to get the price up:
Personally, I always look to see what execs and other insiders need to get quickly and abundantly wealthy from their own company's stock/warrants/options, and then I try to ride their wave, and there are a lot of incentives for insiders to get the PPS up to $12, $14, and $16 respectively for sustained periods. There are no guarantees in that department, and any stock is subject to market forces and unforeseen events, but here are screencaps from an earlier FIII 8-K disclosing some of the terms for earnout shares and other incentives: https://sec.report/Document/0001213900-20-042147/

They filed their requisite S-1 to register future earn-out shares and warrant shares etc. on Friday, so the table is now set for the price to be driven higher to reach those pps goals.





Easy thus far to find a good entry for day and swing trading
My favorite trading scenario is day and swing trading a quality stock of a company that’s in an overall long-term uptrend, while building up a position of freebies along the way. I like to learn what I can about likely incentive-based price benchmarks and make educated guesses about pops and dips that may occur around those benchmarks, and then ride the channels both daily and for short term swings, again while building up a position of freebies. This is just my strategy and not financial advice, but this strategy has done well for me with FSR and other EV de-SPACs. Thus far, ELMS stock seems to have been easily manipulated by algos and market makers, and it has moved fast in either direction on relatively low volume. Last week, for example, it dropped from 10.00 to around 9.00 as the algo relentlessly dropped the price into the bid in 100 share lots for days. So far 9.00 has been the floor and may prove to be a good buy zone. PIPE share cost was 10.00, and warrants when eventually redeemed will exercise at 11.50. It’s been given price targets of $14 and $17 so far:

Wedbush - Outperform $17
Cowen - Outperform $14

Press releases/News/Analysis
News has been flowing steadily since the merger, and a picture is emerging of a serious company, undervalued compared to other more-speculative EV startups, that’s on track to be first-to-market with a top-quality Class 1 EV “last-mile” cargo van produced in America. Here’s a noncomprehensive list of recent press releases and articles – there’s a lot more out there if anyone wants to dig around — and no doubt more will be forthcoming….

July 22, 2021: ELMS Files Patent Application for Class 1 Commercial EV Frontal Impact-Absorption Design, Preliminary Vehicle Crash Testing Yields Positive Results

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/07/22/2267254/0/en/ELMS-Files-Patent-Application-for-Class-1-Commercial-EV-Frontal-Impact-Absorption-Design-Preliminary-Vehicle-Crash-Testing-Yields-Positive-Results.html

July 20, 2021: Wedbush Initiates Coverage on Electric Last Mile Solns with Outperform Rating, Announces Price Target of $17
https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22057923/wedbush-initiates-coverage-on-electric-last-mile-solns-with-outperform-rating-announces-price-target

July 20, 2021: University of Notre Dame Begins Pilot of ELMS All-Electric Urban Delivery to Advance Sustainability Goals

https://ir.electriclastmile.com/news/news-details/2021/University-of-Notre-Dame-Begins-Pilot-of-ELMS-All-Electric-Urban-Delivery-to-Advance-Sustainability-Goals/default.aspx

July 12, 2021: Electric Last Mile Solutions to Ring the Opening Bell at Nasdaq

https://ir.electriclastmile.com/news/news-details/2021/Electric-Last-Mile-Solutions-to-Ring-the-Opening-Bell-at-Nasdaq/default.aspx

July 12, 2021: Electric Last Mile Solutions Announces Long-Term Supply Agreement with Wuling Motors

https://ir.electriclastmile.com/news/news-details/2021/Electric-Last-Mile-Solutions-Announces-Long-Term-Supply-Agreement-with-Wuling-Motors/default.aspx

July 9, 2021: Cowen expects Electric Last Mile Systems to charge ahead


https://www.freightwaves.com/news/cowen-expects-electric-last-mile-systems-to-charge-ahead

June 25, 2021: Electric Last Mile Closes Business Combination; Common Stock Expected to Begin Trading on Nasdaq as “ELMS” on June 28, 2021 https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210625005464/en/Electric-Last-Mile-Closes-Business-Combination-Common-Stock-Expected-to-Begin-Trading-on-Nasdaq-as-%E2%80%9CELMS%E2%80%9D-on-June-28-2021

June 21, 2021: Forum Merger III Corporation Management Team Purchases $4.9 Million of Forum III Shares on Open Market https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18366224-forum-merger-iii-corporation-management-team-purchases-4_9-million-of-forum-iii-shares-on

April 27, 2021: Here's Why I'm Buying This 'Busted SPAC' EV Company

https://ca.investing.com/analysis/heres-why-im-buying-this-busted-spac-ev-company-200463155

Anyway, there’s some of what I’ve been thinking and reading—my post is not exhaustive, and there’s plenty more information out there to consider. This is just a starting point if anyone wants to look into ELMS. So far, it strikes me as one of a few standouts among EV startups, and it seems likely to get more attention and volume in the coming months as they move closer to starting production (estimated this fall). I’ve been taking advantage of its volatility for day trading and short swings to good effect, but one of these days ELMS seems likely to get more attention, higher volume, and make moves towards those benchmarks. Again, just my opinion and not financial advice, and you don't need a research paper to trade this or any stock, but I find ELMS to be filling a vital niche, and I think its story will become very compelling as fall approaches...

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I never give buy/sell/hold recommendations or financial advice. Be careful with your investment dollars, especially in the pink sheets.