GOLDBUGS AMEX Goldbugs Index (GOLD)

[DiscoverGold]

NY Gold Nearest Futures - Rally Underway »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 24, 2021

The NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today at 180180 is immediately trading down about 4.92% for the year from last year's settlement of 189510. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it may rally further on a monthly level. As of now, this market has been rising for 3 months going into July reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend.


ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Nearest Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.


MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Nearest Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2020, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 5 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Nearest Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 180520 and support forming below at 178470. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of June 28th at 175010, which was down 4 weeks from the high made back during the week of May 31st. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are still trading above the Weekly Momentum Indicators so we have not undermined critical support as of yet.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2018 while the last high formed on 2020. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.


Interestingly, the NY Gold Nearest Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 3 months since the low established back in March.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 191920 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during June. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 196250 back during January. Critical support still underlies this market at 167320 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.

DiscoverGold

Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries