VirTra Inc (VTSI)

[sharpchicity]

I've seen two pieces of info:
1. Statement of Objectives for IVAS called for
STP#2 -- 300 systems (i'm assuming HUDs) for Platoon level testing. A platoon roughly consists of 3 squads or 30 soldiers. Each squad of 10 soldiers required ~19 recoil kits.
STP#3 -- 600 systems for Company level testing. A Company is very roughly 100 soldiers or 10 squads. Each squad of 10 soldiers required 20 recoil kits.
STP#4 -- 1600 systems for Battalion level testing. A Battalion is very roughly 1000 soldiers or 100 squads. Each squad of 10 soldiers required 20 recoil kits.

If we use the same ratio of of recoil kit requirements to HUD requirements, it's something like 30-50% of the HUD quantities will have a recoil kit.

2. On May 28, the Army wrote that it will have procured ~26k HUDs in FY21 and will procure ~29k HUDs in FY22 (https://www.asafm.army.mil/Portals/72/Documents/BudgetMaterial/2022/pbr/FY22_PB_brief_28MAY21.pdf -- page 14). The 26k HUD procurement in 2021 doesn't at all line up with STP volume, so my take on this is that the Army will have spent money to procure a lot of additional systems beyond STP volume in Q3 when governements fiscal year ends.

Well how much is "a lot"? lets say the cut checks for roughly 15k units (26k - STP4's 1,600 - a big margin of error for things like "user jury" testing, etc). At 15k units and roughly 30-50% volume of recoil kits per IVAS headset, that's 4k - 8k recoil kits needed for FY21 and and 8k to 15k kits for FY22. At, say, $2,500 per kit (very generous discount of 20%+ and assuming they don't charge more for M240/M249 kits even though they likely will), that's $10M-20M revenue in FY21 and $20M-$40M revenue in FY22. So we're looking at $30-60M revenues as a rough guide in the next year+. From this, I take it that the big order will be Q3 and it'll ramp from there with Q4 being the first $5M+ order.

If they have the work, it's very unlikely that, assuming IVAS units do get shipped, recoil kits aren't part of the package. Any communication between the laser and HUD/puck has to have been figured out by now and therefore means they're a core component of the system's functionality. It's also worth pointing out that there haven't really been "stages" of this rollout, it seems more like they built everything in one go. This helps point to HUDs/recoil kits all being bundled together.

Happy to hear other opinions, though!