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Monday, 07/12/2021 9:41:15 AM

Monday, July 12, 2021 9:41:15 AM

Post# of 5495
Inflation Update:

http://www.pretzelcharts.com/

"The Wall Street Journal just reported that a plurality of economists now expect:

a widely followed measure of inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, to be up 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2021 from a year before. They forecast the annual rise to recede to slightly less than 2.3% a year in 2022 and 2023. That would mean an average annual increase of 2.58% from 2021 through 2023, putting inflation at levels last seen in 1993.
Of course, we've been talking about that here (and on the forums) for a while now... so [insert Bruce Willis gif here... wait, I can actually do that!]"



"Since last update, SPX confirmed the expectation that the decline was "just a fourth wave," by making a new all-time high:"



"Bigger picture, no change, except to note that SPX is about back to the trend line that caused it trouble last time. If it were to sustain a breakout over, that might suggest an extended fifth unfolding. But if it doesn't and meets resistance here for a time, then the market continues to reserve the right for an extended fifth later."



"In conclusion, SPX could form a more complex 4, but if it doesn't, then it likely needs some 4/5 unwinds higher yet. Thus we could see a pause/drop from current resistance over the near term (likely either a micro 4 or the larger, more complex 4). Trade safe."

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