Saturday, June 05, 2021 11:13:32 AM
Amazon (AMZN) has been on a media spending spree recently. From the NFL it has acquired the exclusive rights for 16 Thursday night football games for a period 11 years (between 2022 until the end of 2033), in a deal worth $11 billion in total. It has also splashed out $465 million to be able to produce exclusive Lord of the Rings content. Lastly, Amazon has announced the acquisition of MGM studios for $8.5 billion, bringing under the fold MGM’s library of 4,000 films and 17,000 TV episodes. What’s more, it will own the IP rights for eternity.
Looking at these investments, as far as Needham’s Laura Martin is concerned, if you still think Amazon is only a giant of e-commerce dabbling in other ventures, you are underestimating its media arm’s significance.
These content decisions, Martin says, “underscore the strategic importance and hidden value of AMZN’s portfolio of media assets, which we value at $920B, or 53% of AMZN’s current EV, and growing quickly.”
Martin thinks that the media holdings are, along with AWS, just as important as the e-commerce business.
“Both are meaningful value drivers in their own right, plus they lower the customer acquisition cost, plus they make AMZN’s ecosystem stickier, which drivers higher LTV by lowering churn,” the 5-star analyst opined.
Unlike AWS, however, for which there are detailed quarterly revenue and profits, the media empire’s “hidden value” is more difficult to gauge. But as Martin notes above, by now, these account for more than half of the company’s enterprise value.
Martin values Prime Video – with its 200 million global subs, second only to Netflix – at $345 billion, making up 20% of AMZN’s current EV.
Martin counts advertising revenues as part of the media segment. This fast-growing component is worth even more, “about” $553 billion, amounting to 32% of AMZN’s current EV, according to Martin’s calculations.
The final piece is reserved for streaming platform Twitch. While at $21 billion, the service only accounts for 1% of Amazon’s total EV, Martin thinks this is an “overlooked” yet vital asset.
“Only investors who have young male children between the ages of 10 and 21 understand the unique strategic position and valuation upside of Twitch over time, we believe, both as a stand-alone asset as well as its strategic importance to the AMZN empire owing to its 65% male, 73% under 35 years old, user base,” Martin said.
So, all good news for Amazon, but what are the takeaways for investors? Martin rates the stock a Buy along with a $4,150 price target. The figure implies one-year gains of 30%. (To watch Martin’s track record, click here)
Amazon retains Wall Street’s full support; the stock has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on a unanimous 31 Buys. At $4,295.17, the average price target suggests shares will appreciate by 34% over the coming months. (See AMZN stock analysis on TipRanks)
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