LocWolf, here are some thoughts around the cancellation of the Markman Hearing. Obviously, this could be due to any number of circumstances, including the need for the judge and/or the newly appointed technical advisor to study the details. Who knows, but based on some posts on various message boards, there are some shareholders who hold out hope that a settlement is forthcoming.
So here's the potential problem. If there is a settlement, reality says that Intel isn't going to avoid a jury trial by 'generously offering' HDC billions of dollars. After all, they've argued that Intel hasn't infringed, and the company's board obviously wouldn't be overly amenable to offering up billions to a company that is expected to run out of cash by Q1 2022, before a jury trial. Thus, if we look at this rationally, a 'big number' for HDC is a 'small number' for Intel, and any settlement is conceptually a number that might actually end up being a complete disservice to HDC shareholders. For example, what if the settlement looks big on paper, but only correlates to something like 12 cents per share? Perhaps there will be some shareholders who walk away under water?
Obviously, the insiders won't be walking away under water, and we all know that the CEO and chairman isn't a spring chicken, nor are a number of HDC shareholders. The HDC team could obviously 'spin' this as the best possible opportunity, while not really representing shareholders. After all, we know the company hasn't taken steps to run this as a real business by monetizing the IP, so it very much appears to be a very calculated effort to reward insiders, potentially to the detriment of many shareholders. And, let' not forget that the law firm representing us has done so on a contingency basis, meaning that they can actually make a pretty decent return on a project that didn't even force them to go to trial. And, of course, they need to take their piece up front, leaving less available for shareholders.
We'll see, but a settlement at this point actually doesn't give me the warm and fuzzies, because it likely would be validation that Intel is avoiding a much larger number, even if it would take more time.
