Wednesday, April 14, 2021 5:26:29 PM
What matters here are regulatory capital levels. Assuming the seniors get cancelled, converted to common, or some combination of both, core capital is basically equal to book equity, while Tier 1 excludes DTAs and AOCI and CET1 further excludes the juniors.
As of the end of 2020, the totals were:
Fannie Mae
Core capital/book equity: $25B
Tier 1 capital: $12B
CET1 capital: -$7B
Freddie Mac
Core capital/book equity: $16B
Tier 1 capital: $10B
CET1 capital: -$4B
Combined
Core capital/book equity: $41B
Tier 1 capital: $22B
CET1 capital: -$11B
I would expect the numbers as of March 31 to be around $3B higher for Fannie, $2B higher for Freddie, and $5B higher combined due to retained earnings.
According to the capital rule, CET1 is the one that matters for exit, while core is the important one in reference to HERA.
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