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MUST READ...long but worth it!!!

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Big movements in AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc stock price on Friday moving 10.69% between high and low StockInvest.us - 7/23/2021 8:14:41 PM
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Shockerj   Friday, 03/19/21 10:39:23 AM
Re: None
Post # of 64598 
MUST READ...long but worth it!!!

WEBSITE FOR PICTURES: https://www.reddit.com/r/amcstock/comments/m851tm/are_the_shorts_unwinding_updated_for_318/



Hello all,

This is a continuation of my DD from yesterday which can be found here:

3/17: /r/amcstock/comments/m7cozs/are_the_shorts_unwinding_updated_for_317/3/16:/r/amcstock/comments/m6mzt7/are_the_shorts_unwinding/

Based on some questions I got from the last DD, I want to expand upon my theory into a little more detail. I ask you to please bare with me and read through it all, but I will leave a TL;DR regardless. Additionally, I am going to simplify this for anyone new to the subject. A lot of my theory is widely known, so I do not claim to be original in thought. Merely, due diligence. I have found some guidance of the intraday movement in this, while I wait for the "Main event". I will make this as readable as possible, and section it out.

I do not intend to tear down any castles, or create any glass houses. Please approach this with an open mind.

PSA: This is not investment advice, and I am not an accredited advisor. I do not recommend you do anything with this information. I have written this purely to spark discussion and thought. This is all theory, tied to public data.

****For those not interested in speculation, skip to the numbers****Theory Backstory:

Section 1: "The Mitosis"

I recognized a "pattern" beginning 3/5, that would suggest a large ramp up in price into quadruple witching day caused by smoothbrain shorts not understanding what's happening or being risk adv af. Since then, I've identified this as being a natural growth based on many things but mainly squeeze hype and solid fundamentals. However, the growth we've seen in the time since 3/5 has been everything but "natural". I decided to look deeper.

To begin let's take a time travel back to the first AMC/GME squeeze on 1/27. AMC was being shorted to the 3rd ring of hell from May 2020 onward. Below you will see the chart of how ridiculously heavy it was shorted going into October-December.

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r/amcstock - Are the shorts Unwinding? Updated for 3/18? (IMPORTANT INFO INSIDE)

Key**

Ghosts = Hedgefunds shorting privately

Shorts = Anyone publicly shorting, including public HF short positions.

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This shorting created a powder keg, that relative to the conspiracy on the "ghosts" , was small but powerful. I'm sure just how many shorts this was could be calculated, but I don't have the time or the resources. But we do know the keg is presumably around 15-20m publicly visible shares.

This action began what I thought was the beginning of the squeeze on the ghosts. But is what I now perceive as a sideshow meant to appease us underlings, and not necessarily some of the ghosts fumbling the ball.

Please understand the duality of these sentiments. The "Main Event" is the undisclosed shorts unwinding. We cannot see when this is done, it's incredibly easy to hide, and near impossible to find if you're not in the Top 10. But if the amount of short shares being held by ghosts is true, there's no god damn way $20 was the end the ceiling.

So this is what we can presume, the Jan price action was ghosts unwinding all public positions. Some investment funds will disclose them via 13Fs, hence why we saw Melvin Capital's holdings. But 1. They do not have to disclose their entire position and 2. They do not have to disclose them at all. This is where they become ghosts and we start playing the data we can see. Short positions are only made public by ghosts to effect market sentiment and cause FUD. There is no other strategical reason or requirement I'm aware of.

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However, if you're manipulating the market via dark pools, or just genuinely want to keep the SEC out of your shit; It makes a whole lot of sense not to "ride this one out", at least publicly. Additionally, you can push the narrative of "take your home run and go home" or whatever that bald fuck said. And hope this bleed stops, while publicly pumping the stock, and possibly playing it on the way up via subsidiaries, thus saving your HF. See Billions season 2. We're about to see a whole lot of "mom and pop" hfs I presume.

The data we can see is everyone else. EVERYONE else, meaning you, me, professional investors... everyone. Now realistically, new traders do not short stocks, and having the ability to short stocks requires a decent amount of buying power to even get into the game. So it's safe to assume these are mainly professional investors and accredited investors. These people did not get to where they were by shorting heavily and absorbing risk. A short gone bad will blow up their portfolio. Game over. This is extremely important to remember.

Section 2: "The Unwind?"

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Below, you can clearly see there was a large, sudden unwind of shorts. This was caused by a ramp up in stock price. Or as it's more commonly called, a short squeeze. As is tradition with short squeezes, the expectation is that after the squeeze has squoze, the price will come down. How far, and how violently is a gamble. But, it's rare that it stays up (looking at you TSLA).

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So, logically, shorts began unwinding in early Jan, causing a run up. And at the peak it was heavily re-shorted. This is where my interest really begins. See below for when I'm talking about if you can't read. The highlighter area is the ammo for the -re-short i'm going to begin speaking about.


r/amcstock - Highlighted area is the time period of roughly 2/5-2/25
Highlighted area is the time period of roughly 2/5-2/25
During this post squeeze time, AMC was heavily re-shorted. Above you see what would look to be shorts unwinding late and hodling through the price jump to $20+, then getting off the train once the price had re-settled at $5. This would theoretically cause a small jump in price to lets say $9 for shiggles. But, as has it's been in 90% of squeeze precedent, the price would be expected to fall further.

I do not believe this unwind to $20, was ANY of the ghosts unwinding. I believe the upward movement shook out the shorts from 0ct-dec and caused the beginning of the squeeze. I do not believe this should have played out the way it did, $20 should not have been the cap, but the beginning of a week long unwind. What the price would be at the end? *Insert meme number here*.

To continue to fuel that rocket ship, you needed the 2nd stage of fuel. Buying, en masse, what did we see? 1.2bn in volume in one day or the break out of the atmosphere. Half way to the moon, some dick from Bulgaria, and a couple others, shot holes in the fuel tank. Restricting buying, primarily from retail investors.

I'd like to say RH's motivation here was to collaborate with the ghosts, but as in every deniable operation. They had multiple motivations, all advantageous for many different parties. But, congress might actually sort this one out. That being said, it will be historical, don't count on them to force them to cover. It will not happen in time, as I will explain further once I get into the data portion.

It is important in this game to understand who you're up against. Right now, this is what I see. Whoever held through that must have began shorting right after or during the squeeze. Covering through that price spike and for months leading up with %100+ interest rates is just not logical for the account sizes we're speaking about. This is the formula for calculating your short interest payment: (Stock Price x Current Interest Rate x #of days held ) / 360. You do the math.

Section 3: "I'm MELting!!!"

Let's recap with a quick timeline dates are rough, same with stock price. But as always, sentiment is the same.

02/03/2020: Coronavirus becomes mainstream news, panic begins. $AMC Price: $6.50

02/23/2020: AMC Stock begins to bleed. $AMC Price: $7.50

03/03/2020: Coronavirus closures begin. $AMC Price: $6.10

10/01/2020: AMC continues to struggle, rumors of bankruptcy spreading as share price plummets. $AMC Price: $4.85

12/15/2020: GME discussion begins picking up major traction. $AMC Price: $2.15

1/15/2021: $AMC begins reversion, squeeze begins. Catalyst, unknown to me, presumably big money liked the DFV DD and decided to play. $AMC Price: $2.33

1/27/2021: Side show event #1begins, RH and other brokers restrict trading $AMC Price: $20

1/28/2020: Side show event #1 begins coming down. $AMC Price: $17

*Note during 1/27-2/5 a lot of public data sources had outages or issues reporting so data is not the best*

2/4: First data from public historically shorting becomes available since 1/27. $AMC Price: $7

2/22: AMC has been re-shorted down to 150k publicly available shares.

We will begin here.

At this time, the major sentiment amongst seasoned traders were that this was an orchestrated pump and dump, so why not play it on the way down. I think it's foolish of me to also think that there isn't a HF out there that also did the same, but I don't count ghosts.

The important part here is that the narrative at the time was AMC will crash again, but bankruptcy wasn't necessarily the only forecast anymore. That being said, the stock was still deemed over valued. So those shorting was a valid play. Additionally, FUD has successfully broken the main narrative and boomer money started looking to get greedy and predict another crash.

Thus, AMC get's heavily shorted...

But, what's this? It didn't crash? Debt cleared? Vaccines? Acquisition rumors? Quad witching day with 200k ITM OI on calls?


r/amcstock - Citadel Actual
Citadel Actual
Queue Side show event #2 The meltdown.

Section 4: "March Madness"

Alrighty then, we're almost done, thank you for reading this far.

On 2/19 we started to see the beginning of what I'll call a VERY un expected reversion from $5, and trending upwards towards to a high of $11 on 2/25.

$AMC fell hard from $11 back to $9 and the heavy short cycle, I presume ,began again.

The cycle truly could have began somewhere between 2/19-3/5 but my microscope was no on it until3/5 so that's where I start my speculation. And where my DD begins.

So far to summarize my thoughts:

1/27 was start of the "Main event" but was stopped.
The events of 1/27, were purely public traders, and public HF positions being liquidated.
I believe at the time, all public shares were actually liquidated as the data suggests and public shorts exited their position.
I do not believe the ghosts exited their position, or what you will see later being described as "unwinding"
I believe a repeat of #s 1-3 are happening again on GME and AMC, starting 2/22-3/5.
To truly get a grasp of what's causing the price action. I wanted to see if there was an effect on day to day (D2D) shorting on price, or if it was the opposite. In doing so, I've found a couple of things, albeit the sample size is extremely small. Unfortunately, this is the game we choose to play.

What I noticed was this.

Public shorts have been getting crushed since 3/5, this public crushing unwinds in-between 1-3 trading days. This has caused what is a natural ladder up in stock price, sped up by Main event hype and poorly timed public shorting.

This means, in our current climate public shorting data could become a early forecast on price prediction 1-3 days in advance.

For example:

If: Estimated D2D unwind 3/10-3/11 is +6.56m

Then: These shares must be covered between 3/12-3/16 and we should see a price spike.

Well, those are the real number of unwound shares on that date, and guess what the price action was from 3/10-3/16?

3/10: $9.85

3/11: $10.28

3/12: $11.16

3/15: $14.04

3/16: $13.02

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Now that sounds all fine and dandy, but it gets more complicated. Think of it like this

Shorts get crushed, sideshow event countdown begins.

Day 1: Shorts unwind 5m shares, and have T+2 days to cover, so essentially 3.

- Shorts will unwind now, at what will become their loss point, or could hold until forced to deliver said shares for up to T+2 to look for a better exit point. E.G Hoping the price goes down.

Day 2: Shorts either exited, or their getting a lot of phone calls.

Day 3: Shorts with strings to pull are in, everyone else is already out.

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The thing is, this happens daily, and multiple countdowns can be running at once.

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For example:

Let's say this cycle completes, and on Day 3: the price has gone from $10-$15. Logically, someone will see that run up, and begin shorting it on the way up, most likely on Day 2, Thus potentially resetting the clock. Or more realistically, starting another clock along side the current clock.

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This can have many effects. Such as dampening the effect of a short unwind indirectly, or beginning a global financial crisis.

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r/amcstock - Are the shorts Unwinding? Updated for 3/18? (IMPORTANT INFO INSIDE)

I now, firmly believe D2d short unwind is at very least, a solid indicator of short sentiment. And historically short sentiment is usually a good indicator of downward movement, but this is 2021 bitch. Judging from the recent fidelity purchase at what has been determined around $13, see below.

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r/amcstock - Are the shorts Unwinding? Updated for 3/18? (IMPORTANT INFO INSIDE)

There is a strong bullish sentiment on this stock, big money is getting in, and the shorts are being knocked out. Again. This time 1/28 happened, a lot of tricks are out of the bag, but I'd say it's foolish to think all of them are. I was in on GME at $19 because I smelled a perfect storm, not because I know something everyone else didn't.

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I smell a perfect storm brewing again.

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Fin.

Below I will post the raw data I'm judging this off of. I am eager to learn more, and dive into this further. Please try to separate my speculation from the data, and come to your own conclusions.

DATA:

*I've started to look at intraday unwind as I think it's the next level to making this possible predictor more accurate, excel sheet SS included.*

3/5 Close Price : $8.05

IWN: 1.5m

IWM: 1.6m

AMC: 200k

URTY

TQQQ

3/8 Close Price: $9.29

IWN: 700k

PU: +800k

IWM: 2.3m

PU: -700k

AMC: 350k

PU: -150k

Estimated D2D unwind 3/5-3/8: -50k

3/9 Close Price: $10.50

IWN: 500k

PU: -200k

IWM: 5m

PU: +2.7m

AMC: 90k

PU: -240k

Estimated D2D unwind 3/8-3/9: +2.26m

3/10 Close Price: $9.85 *Price peaked at $12.47

IWN: 650k

PU: -150k

IWM: 3.5m

PU: -1.5m

AMC: 300k

PU: -210k

Estimated D2D unwind 3/9-3/10: -1.14m

3/11 Close Price: $10.28

IWN: 500k

PU: +150k

IWM : 4.11m

PU: +1.61m

AMC: 5.4m

PU: +5.1m

Estimated D2D unwind 3/10-3/11: +6.56m

3/12 Close Price: $11.16

IWN: 550k

PU: +50k

IWM: 5m

PU: +990k

AMC: 4.1m

PU: -1.1m

Estimated D2D unwind 3/11-3/12: -60k

3/15 Close Price: $14.04

IWN 850k

PU: +300k

IWM 3.9m

PU: -1.1m

AMC: 450k

PU: -4.55m

Estimated D2D unwind 3/12-3/15: -5.35m

3/16 Close Price: $13.02

IWN: 800k

PU: -50k

IWM: 3.3m

PU: -600k

AMC: 650k

PU: +200k

Estimated D2D unwind 3/15-3/16: -450k

3/17 Close Price: $13.56

IWN: 850k

PU: +50k

IWM: 3.7m

PU: +500k

AMC: 2.7m

PU: +2.05m

Estimated D2D unwind 3/16-17: +2.6m

3/18 Close Price: $14.00

IWN: 750k

PU: -100k

IWM: 3.4m

PU: -300k

AMC: 4.7m

PU: +2m

Estimated D2D unwind 3/17-3/18: +1.6m3/18

Intraday Data:

r/amcstock - Are the shorts Unwinding? Updated for 3/18? (IMPORTANT INFO INSIDE)

TL:DR:

Baby shorts causing all kinds of trouble for ghost shorts, we may be seeing the second squeeze. I have a firm date in mind, I won't say it, but the data will lead you there if you understand my sentiment. Good luck apes

Disclaimer
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. I am an amateur investor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, or stock picks, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this site, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Pos:

r/amcstock - Are the shorts Unwinding? Updated for 3/18? (IMPORTANT INFO INSIDE)

r/amcstock - Are the shorts Unwinding? Updated for 3/18? (IMPORTANT INFO INSIDE)

Edit: Corrected some formatting.

Edit2: Is this the moment I become a redditor? Thanks for the awards and kind words!!! Make sure to ready thoroughly and understand before acting!

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