my understanding is that mnuchin cut this short around christmas day;
low and behold, now he is starting a hedge fund that he was on tour advertising in the middle east where he will be investing in financial companies..
sounds to me like he had this whole plan on his desk and figured, why the hell should he sign away the liquidation preference when his sources at the DOJ et al after oral arguments say that the SCOTUS case is a huge loss for Treasury since the named defendant incriminated the defense and now that trump is not getting re-elected he is out in about a month; and as such would be perfectly positioned to raise hundreds of millions or billions and collect a fat fee and magnify his net worth in explosive fashion capitalizing on basically insider information ..
he saw all the plan documents, knew there was no alternative here, had the whole thing put together and wondered why he should do anyone else a favor when he can be political and do nothing and come back and make an absolute fortune on his bread and butter, which is agency mortgage backed securities and restructurings..
no one knows this stuff better than him, anyway,
SCOTUS is a potential 9-0 win on APA claims. A named defendant who helped draft the law incriminated the defendant's claims and no lower court judge has ever correctly interpreted the APA until the fifth circuit en banc got this right..
And they got this right citing a named defendant three times.
And the plaintiffs closing arguments cited the named defendant specifically explaining why FHFA/Treasury's actions undermined expectations and how this would impact investor expectations and lead to instability during future crisises.
Anyway, i figure early may is when we get the ruling. like ~75 more days.
i expect jps to go to 50% of par then.
and then, based on what i'm hearing, i think that the government has 0 incentive to fight a losing case, all those bad guys who committed all those crimes in the past -- they aren't decision makers anymore and there is NO MORE money to steal out of fannie and freddie. this letter agreement takes the financial incentive away from the potential influence of the bad people.. so there is really only one way for the government to get more money out of this conservatorship..
you and i both know what is going to happen, we both know that the timeframe is the only question, yeah could be a few more years, but i doubt it.. i think based on the company and fhfa's statements everyone is on the same page that more capital sooner is the only way forward and treasury has committed to restructuring its stake to making that possible and i think that those cards fall more into place after the scotus ruling... which basically illustrates that they have a losing hand so what are they fighting for anyway?
