180 Life Sciences Corp (ATNF)

[SCModerate]

Current & Future Valuation: From Stocktwits:
"I was looking at a few articles regarding how to put a valuation on clinical-stage biotech- the takeaway points would indicate that ATNF will have a current valuation much larger than $100M when we get the 1st analyst coverage.

One takeaway is a rule of thumb valuation for an approved drug is 3 times peak 1-year sales... then that number is discounted by different % s depending on the current trial stage (which determines the likelihood of eventual approval. (So even drugs that make it through pre-clinical trial into phase 1 trials are assigned often something like 10% of peak 1-year sales.

But the Dupuytren drug should be at least 60-75% based on all of the specific factors... which would rise to 100% once approved. Not sure what peak one-year sales are likely to be on a $5-7 Billion total addressable market... but any modest est put market cap much much higher than $100M for what the current market cap should be.

For example, assigning a $750M peak 1-year sales (which is prob extremely low)... then discounted to take 60% of that amount for the current trial stage (against very low Est)... comes out to $450,000. Then $450M x 3 = $1.3Billion.

So assuming $750M is a realistic peak of 1-year sales for a $5-7Billion total addressable market... this valuation formula would indicate the current market cap should be over $1 Billion, just for Dupuytren. (I guess we will see once the 1St analyst price targets come out ... hopefully any day now).

If this is anywhere in the ballpark of being applied correctly.. it would indicate current valuation should be 13x current levels? Or if looking at future valuation ... over $100 price target if Dupuytren drug is approved (based on a guess of $750M being the peak one year sales).