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in between OEPM pivots things happen, variations happens,

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Ferda   Saturday, 01/23/21 07:14:31 AM
Re: USDollar post# 335520
Post # of 337491 
in between OEPM pivots things happen, variations happens, dips happen.
Yep it's exciting isn't it? I'll reply to this post with last OPEX what a knock down drag-out fight that was.

The OEPM in it's simplistic form does not take those into account.
Yep, OEPM in the simplistic form does not take that stuff into account.


It's like looking at a bus route. Yes, will get from point A to point E and final point/stop N, but in between the bus goes sometimes in a seemingly random, even inverse manner.
Accounting for those variations and capturing as much as possible from them is essential.

Yep that is the fun part.


Also, once we understand at least some of the variations, then any negative variation of the "established" variations will make us understand that the final pivot N is denied.
So for example each pivot has it's own importance, like departments into an organization. So when it is reached, the way price reacts is either inside norms or negative - this will forecast next expectations. It's like a chart inside a chart or overlaid.

Not sure I follow entirely but I think that makes sense.


Also the percentage is BS for OEPM concept. Reason is that it will be way too simplistic. Hence a combination between percentage and abstract numbers is better. Just like warranty on a car, 5 years or 100k whichever comes first..
Yeah I think it was just a line drawn across a few years of data. So far it has been decently accurate if you said at the beginning of a new option month the monthly top price occurs above the 4th or 5th level, it would have been correct for Sept, Oct, and Nov. For Dec. it came to within ~1.5 SPY points of being above the 4th level. Jan was not even close, topped a point below the 3rd level. All of those duck, dip, dives, and dodges, you mentioned included as well. Takes a nimble and vigilant head to keep up and I am learning that the hard way!

Still I think I like it overall because it provides a decent bracket for what is a possible realistic SPY price move for the day/week. That being said, I am told it only works well with highly liquid securities.


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