Sunday, January 17, 2021 10:08:17 AM
This is an extremely important point, one that so many get wrong.
FnF did not and does not have the ability to pay down the seniors any time it wants.
The proof is in Section 3(a) on page 3 of the senior preferred stock certificate. Normally I don't quote such long sections, but I will do so here while placing the important parts in bold.
The Commitment, i.e. Treasury's LOC, has been in place since the original SPSPAs were signed in 2008 and has never terminated. Thus the "Following termination of the Commitment" part doesn't apply.
"Prior to termination of the Commitment" is what is applicable here. Carefully reading (i) and (ii) shows that FnF could only pay down increases to the senior pref liquidation preference that occurred due to partial/missed past dividend payments, or partial/missed past commitment fees. FnF have never missed a dividend payment on the seniors nor made a partial one, and have never paid a commitment fee at all. Thus FnF could not and cannot pay down the seniors at any point.
Section 8(b) on page 5 states:
The optional paydown makes it clear that only liquidation preference increases due to (ii) and (iii) can be paid down. NOT increases due to (i), which is the source of all liquidation preference increases that ever happened.
The upshot here is that the Fifth Circuit (see below) has been given two choices of remedy: either act as if the seniors could have been paid down at FnF's option, or act as if they couldn't. Seeing how only the Third Amendment, i.e. the NWS, is being challenged, do you think they would choose a remedy that violates the original agreement (killing the seniors) over one that doesn't (keeping the seniors but granting FnF $125B cash)? I don't.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the Supreme Court was only asked if a remedy should be available, not to actually apply it. That's why I said "the Fifth Circuit" above; a win by the plaintiffs in the Supreme Court only means they get a remedy, the actual case would be remanded back down to the Fifth Circuit to determine what that remedy is. Then the remedy would be appealed back to the Supreme Court, etc. We are still a ways away from a final win in Collins, even assuming everything goes right.
(from another post)
This has always been there. It is section 4(a) in the same document linked to above. Before, all proceeds from sales of stock would have to go to Treasury to pay down the seniors, and wouldn't go to FnF at all. Thus they wouldn't build any capital, defeating the purpose of raising capital in the first place. The agreement from last week amended this section, allowing FnF to keep the first $70B of common stock sale proceeds, but any other stock sales would have their proceeds go to Treasury instead of FnF.
Note that this makes preferred stock sales useless. The agreement clearly envisions $140B of commons being sold in order for FnF to get out of conservatorship. Mark Calabria himself said “Retained earnings alone are insufficient to adequately capitalize the enterprises. Until the enterprises can raise private capital, they are at risk of failing in the next housing crisis,” so ideas of retained earnings-only recaps should be thrown out. A new FHFA director might see things differently, but that's not necessarily a good thing. If that new director is Mark Zandi, watch out below on the share prices of both commons and juniors.
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