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NY Natural Gas Futures (NG) - Temp low but Waterfall Still in Motion »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 1, 2021

At this time, the NY Natural Gas Futures closed today at 2539. As of now, this market has been declining for 2 years going into 2021 reflecting that this has been only still a bearish reactionary trend.

The historical broader tone of the NY Natural Gas Futures has been a bearish consolidation following the high eastablished back in 2005. Since then, this market has created 3 reaction highs which have been unable to break this overall protracted bearish consolidating trend. Still, the major low was made in 2020 and the market has bounced back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2019.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Natural Gas Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 2552 and support forming below at 2368. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 21st at 2806, which was up 2 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 7th. So far, this week is has moved to the downside penetrating last week's low of 2507 reaching 2263. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 21st reaching 2806 failed to exceed the previous high of 3002 made back during the week of November 23rd. That rally amounted to only two typical reaction weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 2462. Resistance is to be found starting at 2821. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of August for three months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 1 month. Meanwhile, the past month has witnessed a rally of 0.51% percent. A month-end closing below 17201 will warn that the market is losing its upward momentum and should retest support below. It will take generally a monthly closing above 17328 to maintain a near-term upward rally.

This market is trading well beneath that high of October which was 3396 by more than 10 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 2186 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.

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