Childhood vaccine uptake down 26% this year, report estimates
(This will likely cause a big increase in testing in the next year or two)
Nine million childhood vaccines are projected to be missed by the end of this year in the United States—a 26% decrease compared with 2019—according to a Blue Cross Blue Shield Association (BCBSA) report. This decline would cause a gap between vaccination rate and that required for herd immunity of 4.8 percentage points for measles and 12.7 percentage points for pertussis (whooping cough). Polio would still maintain a 2.9-percentage-point buffer.
According to BCBS medical claims, both measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) and diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (DtaP) childhood vaccination rates dropped 26% January through September year-over-year, with a predicted 2020-end rate of 88.2% and 79.3%, respectively. That compares with herd immunity requirements of 93.0% and 92.0%, respectively, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Polio vaccination rates went down 16% from 2019 and have an 88.9% coverage prediction for 2020, but the BCBSA does not specify why the decline was less for this vaccine.
In a BCBSA survey of 2,000 parents, 40% cited COVID-19 disruptions as the reason they did not complete their child's vaccinations. Most postponements occurred during the pandemic's onset, March through May, and then again in August, when normally vaccinations would be part of the back-to-school routine.
"The U.S. is on the precipice of a severe immunization crisis among children," said Vincent Nelson, MD, BCBSA chief medical officer, in a press release. "The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly interrupted adherence to vaccination schedules, and the possibility that preventable diseases, like polio, could become a threat to public health once again is particularly concerning."
Nov 18 BCBSA press release
Nov 18 BCBSA infographic
