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Wednesday, November 18, 2020 6:04:30 PM
I read and post on common - but here are some thoughts - for whatever they are worth
IMO do not assume any conversion (makes life simpler)
So any JPS PPS today is based on two factors
The expected final price IF things work for equity (common or JPS)
PAR or say 80% of PAR are two bench marks and no reason to not assume PAR for those that wait
So that is 25 bucks
Why 8-9-10-11 etc now and around now
lack of certainty - discount for lack of certainty
timing ---- as the future value of any JPS is based on the dividend - does the market think dividends might start 2025 or 2027 or 2029
My guess is that the market thinks there is a bunch of uncertainty about EVER being let out of jail
If the new capital rule is read as LATE and HARD TO ACHIEVE Freedom but Freedom --- than JPS should do just fine ---
still some discount for uncertainty
still some discount for time ---- and if it is say 5 years away - then that is a PPS of say 16-19 before the discount for uncertainty
So since no one knows the right discount - the answer IMO is that the market right now is focused on the eventual freedom part and will take PPS up for a bit
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